AriRusila's BalkanBlog - - a personal perspective on events in western Balkans. Topics of interest: Balkans, Israel, Serbia, EU enlargement, ICO/EUSR, crisis management. My Main Blog - AriRusila's BalkanBlog - with document library and link lists you may find from address http://arirusila.wordpress.com
Related to Bosnia there was lot of enmity between three ethnic groups -croats, serbs, bosnian muslims. Bosnian muslims were quite cekular like Kosvo Albanian also. However early 90s saudi money and radical islam started to gain power; from this period was created also al-qaeda links (one remembers that e.g. osama bin-laden had bosnian passport).
What is serious is that these tensions are not going away, they have effect also today's policy.
Related to Bosnia there was lot of enmity between three ethnic groups -croats, serbs, bosnian muslims. Bosnian muslims were quite cekular like Kosvo Albanian also. However early 90s saudi money and radical islam started to gain power; from this period was created also al-qaeda links (one remembers that e.g. osama bin-laden had bosnian passport).
What is serious is that these tensions are not going away, they have effect also today's policy.
As my post was quite long my conclusions were missing so here they are:
Putting my own sympathies – I admire people who have courage to risk their lives for their ideals – aside I would conclude following related today’s events in Iran:
* Iran’s ruling system can be criticized especially due the powerful role of non elected institutions in the whole. Even the system is far away from western democratic ideals I however see existing system more democratic than in most other Middle East or Arabic countries * During last elections there probably was some irregular acts and wrongdoings but not so massive fraud demonstrators are claiming. Indeed the election results in Iran may reflect the will of the Iranian people. * The demonstrations are actually representing a small fraction of society – mainly students and middle-class in Tehran – and as such they will be isolated from other segments of society and unable to deliver any revolution in Iran. * There has been foreign interference for years to destabilize Iran’s regime, however foreign influence for recent demonstrations could be estimated to be minimal and not that scale what Iran’s leadership has been claiming after election protests. * The battle inside Iran’s power structure can lead to radical changes inside ruling clerical elite and maybe also a power shift from non elected to elected institutions. * The short-term effects might well result in either a harsher regime or a more liberal regime. The first choice would probably be counterproductive the later would stabilize Iran by channeling peoples demands for democracy instead of theocracy.
The future of Bosnia as state looks bad. Imagine a country of few million people and 170 ministers. The over triple expencive state authority is not sustainable, not economically nor politically; it political creature a quasi-state like Kosovo. The future I see better if Prud agreement which puts more power to entities from state level will be implemented. Bosnia does not have any competitive edge if compared to its neighbours the opposite is more realistic.
The amount of money is more than Coca Cola company uses for advertising etc. It's ok to inform e.g. EU's programs and services for its taxpayers, however I am concerned when this money is used to sell some idea which is against the will of citizens such as today to brainwash Irish voters to make "right" selection in referendum of Lisbon Treaty. BTW most of EU countries did not arranged referendum at all due the fear that in democratic voting they maybe would make a wrong vote!
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What is serious is that these tensions are not going away, they have effect also today's policy.
What is serious is that these tensions are not going away, they have effect also today's policy.
Putting my own sympathies – I admire people who have courage to risk their lives for their ideals – aside I would conclude following related today’s events in Iran:
* Iran’s ruling system can be criticized especially due the powerful role of non elected institutions in the whole. Even the system is far away from western democratic ideals I however see existing system more democratic than in most other Middle East or Arabic countries
* During last elections there probably was some irregular acts and wrongdoings but not so massive fraud demonstrators are claiming. Indeed the election results in Iran may reflect the will of the Iranian people.
* The demonstrations are actually representing a small fraction of society – mainly students and middle-class in Tehran – and as such they will be isolated from other segments of society and unable to deliver any revolution in Iran.
* There has been foreign interference for years to destabilize Iran’s regime, however foreign influence for recent demonstrations could be estimated to be minimal and not that scale what Iran’s leadership has been claiming after election protests.
* The battle inside Iran’s power structure can lead to radical changes inside ruling clerical elite and maybe also a power shift from non elected to elected institutions.
* The short-term effects might well result in either a harsher regime or a more liberal regime. The first choice would probably be counterproductive the later would stabilize Iran by channeling peoples demands for democracy instead of theocracy.