There will be widespread rain and thundershowers over northwest India during the next week. The intensity of rain will increase during second half of the week. Fairly widespread rainfall would occur along the west coast, east India & northeast India during many days of the week. The rain will decrease in later part of the next week over central India and Gujarat but this region will have Fairly widespread rainfall from next Monday to middlae of the week.
Rainfall would remain subdued over interior Maharashtra and southeast Peninsula. The monsoon trough would remain in its near normal position during 1st half of the week and shift gradually towards north of its normal position during 2nd half leading to increase in the rainfall activity along the foothills of Himalayas.
With the likely southward shift of trough, Monsoon activity may increase over central India and adjoining Andhra Pradesh and Maharashtra. However, rainfall would decrease over northwest and east India.
As per today’s current synoptic conditions, a well marked low pressure area lies over Gangetic West Bengal & neighbourhood with associated upper air cyclonic circulation extending upto midtropospheric levels tilting southwestwards with height. An upper air cyclonic circulation lies over south Rajasthan and neighbourhood extending upto midtropospheric levels tilting southwestwards with height.
The axis of monsoon trough at mean sea level passes through Bikaner, Bharatpur, Banda, Daltonganj, centre of well marked low pressure area and thence southeastwards to eastcentral Bay of Bengal. An off shore trough runs from Gujarat coast to Kerala coast. A western disturbance as an upper air system lies over north Pakistan and neighbourhood.
For the country as a whole, cumulative rainfall during this year’s monsoon has so far upto 10 August been 04% below the LPA. Out of 36 meteorological subdivisions, the rainfall has been excess over 05, normal over 24 and deficient in 07 sub-divisions. In area-wise distribution, 83% area of the country received excess/normal rainfall. Remaining 17% area received deficient/scanty rainfall. 398 out of 602 districts of the country have received normal to excess rainfall. The cumulative seasonal rainfall for the country as a whole from 1-10 August has been 1% above the LPA with near normal rainfall over all the four subdivisions.