"This was first a very modest financial crisis, then mutated into economic crisis, fiscal crisis was later and is now a foreign exchange crisis. And it's not over ..." The phrase is controversial economist Nouriel Roubini. The made in December 2010 and picked up this newspaper in an interview. Roubini, so often accused of doom was right: the crisis, complex and deep, not over. Today, four years after its first flash-the sub-prime-crisis continúa.El usual story puts the focus to illuminate the outbreak in the summer of 2007, when it emerges the problem of subprime mortgages in the U.S.. But we must look further back. At the very least, until the events-not only economic, which were recorded with the turn of the century and millennium. It was the moment (year 2000) the outbreak of the so-called bubble of dot-com, a great impact on the equity markets of escalating oil prices, which had marked minimum in 1998 and the historical jolt - 2001 - which led the attack on the World Trade Center in New York.
The first world power, attacked for the first time in its territory, shaken by the collapse of the Twin Towers, a symbol of global capitalism from the 90 (Francis Fukuyama, The End of History), opted for the deregulation of markets, tax cuts and interest rates and credit expansion. It was a gamble, or rather a response to the image of a power low hours that first showed weak flanks unpublished. But it was Wall Street who took control of the response, the modeling and management. A whim. The credit recorded an expansion layer. The lower borrowing costs and the simplicity of obtaining shot the price of housing, which almost doubled in the U.S. between 2000 and 2006.Rates low, plenty of money and lax control seedlings were bubbles that explode in the summer of 2007 and 2008 with the collapse of the great totem: Lehman Brothers. Suddenly, globalization happy end of the twentieth century with the incorporation of China into global capitalism as the great factory of the world, showing deep cracks.For many analysts, the bankruptcy of Lehman Brothers for the capitalist system is what communism meant for the fall of the Berlin Wall in 1989. Lehman, the U.S. announced the biggest bailout in history (authorized the U.S. Treasury to use up to 700,000 million dollars to support banks in trouble, plus other measures of the Federal Reserve for another 800,000 million). It was tightened to maximum, to prevent its bankruptcy, many analysts identified as the weakest link in the global capitalism: a financial system, abnormally swollen, ill.Triggered the panic, the States were forced to spend huge amounts of money to support a system that was falling apart and no one, of course, assume great responsibilities. The Nobel economist Joseph Stiglitz summarized in Davos (Switzerland): "The banks took excessive risks. Businessmen too much debt. Regulators allowed that. And now the taxpayers have to come to their help cleaning up all trash, which will trigger the state's debt and end up having an impact on public goods such as health.Fulfilled. Indebtedness, distrust, cerrojazo credit took its toll. The economy stalled. In 2009, two years after the first spasm of subprime mortgages, recession have dominion over the economy. In the case of Spain, was the abrupt end of an expansive cycle of 15 years. A drama international crisis because the crisis itself was added to a system based on the brick and real estate speculation. However, Spain, for the moment, no country was worse off in the last chapter of the crisis, sovereign debt. The economic slowdown, debt and fiscal imbalances have resulted in the intervention to their rescue, the economies of Greece, Portugal and Ireland. Behind the global collapse is, say critics of the system, a model based on banks lending more money than they have, which requires to sustain a steady growth of the economy. As with the bike, everything is going as you pedal. The break is equivalent to the fall.If imbalances are maintained in time and meet forecasts as the American specialist in energy and environment Richard Heinberg (The end of growth) could be profound changes in the financial-corporate, with the breaking of global capitalism in its present form and the questioning of U.S. hegemony.What to expect, then the future? Probably, say analysts criticized the system as Ramon Fernandez Duran (The collapse of global capitalism 2010-2030) operate regional capital, with a strong state, a la China, and high conflict with each other.