23 Experts claim surge in Afghanistan not working.

Of course one could also probably round up 24 others who would claim it was working fine or perhaps at least progressing but with speed bumps. The experts have written an open letter to president Obama.

The letter warns that the offensive of General Petraeus in the South is not going well. They also claim the war is financially unsustainable. Well if tax cuts for the rich are sustainable surely a war to keep Al Qaeda on the run and the Taliban busy killing NATO troops is just as sustainable. What is needed are jobs for the military industrial complex. The deficit can come later with cuts to the social safety net. This will happen as early as next year. Look at what is happening with austerity programs already well on their way in Europe. The stock market thinks it is OK. The vast majority of Americans want budget cuts. With the Republicans tax cuts and foreign wars they will come fast and furious.

The letter warns that security is worsening and Islamabad's support for the Taliban means "it is not realistic to bet on a military solution". The letter suggests that Washington should "seriously explore the possibility of a political settlement in which the Taliban are part of the Afghan political system". But this was already contemplated. However, the plan was for the surge to weaken the Taliban first so that the U.S. and Afghans could negotiate from a position of strength.

The letter says that the claim that security pockets in southern Afghanistan and Kabul have been established is misleading. The campaign is only "suppressing, locally and temporarily, the symptoms of the disease, but fails to offer a cure". Also, The counter-insurgency strategy "is now a full-scale military campaign causing civilian casualties and destruction of property"."Due to the violence of the military operations, we are losing the battle for hearts and minds in the Pashtun countryside, with a direct effect on the sustainability of the war." This seems to be correct. Stanley McChrystal was more cognizant of the problem of civilian casualties it seems. However the curbs on action was very unpopular with troops.

The letter also claims that plans to build an Afghan army and police force to take over security by 2014 is unrealistic. Almost 1,000 Canadian troops will be left in Afghanistan to help in this task after the Canadian combat mission ends next year.

Many districts now still remain outside of government control even in the south. Security is worsening in the north. Both insurgent attacks and civilian deaths are at record levels as are troop casualties. On Thursday Obama will no doubt give a quite different spin on what is happening.

Obama is to present the results of a one-year review of his Afghan policy. No doubt it will be moderately optimistic and call for staying the course. But we will see. I could be wrong.There will likely be briefings by bigwigs, Robert GatesRobert Gates and HilaryHilary Clinton, after the report. A public version of the report is also to be released. Press Secretary Robert GibbsRobert Gibbs has already said that Obama is confident the U.S. is making progress in Afghanistan so we more or less should know what to expect.