NY Times: Young 68% Chance of Winning.

Amongst the lastest polls from The Hill and Public Opinion, there is a new shocker from the New York times which considers all the polling, demographic data, and past trends in the 9th District concerning Congressional, Senatorial, and Presidential elections to make their "538 Forecast" on the current race in the 9th.

According to the New York Times, Todd Young has a 68.8% chance of winning against his Democrat opponent Baron Hill who is projected to only have a 31.4% chance of winning on Nov. 2nd.

The actual projected results favor Todd Young with a 50.6% vote versus Baron Hill having a 47.3% share of the vote. It must be remembered that Greg Knott, Libertarian, and Jerry LucasJerry Lucas, write-in candidate, are also running for the 9th District Congressional seat.

It appears that it was Mid-July that Todd Young was tied 48.7% with Baron Hill. From then on, Todd has been on top of this poll's forecasts, but it must also be noted that since the beginning of September, when Todd held a 50.8% forcasted share of the vote, he has been slowly dwindling until recently (around Oct 15th)

It would seem that the negative ad campaign by Baron Hill's team had an affect in dragging Todd's image and vote down in the polls. Notice, however that Todd's polls started rising back up right around the debates in Jasper and Bloomington, Ind.

The Hill also recently came out with a poll putting Baron Hill ahead by 2 point with an MoE of 5 points. Some have criticized the poll for the types of questions which were asked favoring Baron Hill as a "fiscal hawk" when his opponents have been on the offensive about his voting record which they believe represents liberal values and lack of fiscal responsibility.

The New York TimesThe New York Times poll, however, also has a Margin of Error of 8% with regards to the Oct. 28th forcast result of 50.6% for Young and 47.3% for Hill.

This is also why the New York Times calls this election a "toss-up," though they still insist Young having a 2:1 probability of winning.