Earth ‘on alert' as sun awakens; Solar storm damage could top 20 Katrinas

Earth and space will soon connect in an unprecedented way. The Sun is "waking up from a deep slumber," according to Richard Fisher, head of NASA's Heliophysics Division. Massive solar storms will bombard earth, and the ramifications of that space weather could rival any earthly weather humans have experienced.

"In the next few years we expect to see much higher levels of solar activity. At the same time, our technological society has developed an unprecedented sensitivity to solar storms.... I believe we're on the threshold of a new era in which space weather can be as influential in our daily lives as ordinary terrestrial weather. We take this very seriously indeed," said Fisher.

General scientific consensus is that the coming "solar maximum" could arrive in 2012 or 2013. It will be "the most violent in 100 years," says astronomy lecturer and columnist Dave Reneke in Australian Science magazine. Earth will be hit with unprecedented levels of magnetic energy from solar flares.

The National Academy of Sciences (NAS) framed the problem two years ago in a landmark report entitled Severe Space Weather Events -- Societal and Economic Impacts. It noted how people of the 21st century rely on high-tech systems for the basics of daily life.

Smart power grids, GPS navigation, air travel, financial services and emergency radio communications can all be knocked out by intense solar activity. NAS warned that a century-class solar storm could cause 20 times more economic damage than Hurricane Katrina.

The National Space Weather Program Council conducted a forum in Washington, DC in June to discuss how solar storms affect today's technological society. Organizers focused on protecting critical infrastructure. The ultimate goal is to improve the nation's ability to prepare for, diminish the impact of and respond to potentially devastating space weather.

Preparedness is critical because much of the damage can be mitigated if managers know a storm is coming. Putting satellites in ‘safe mode' and disconnecting transformers can protect them from damaging electrical surges. Preventative action, however, requires accurate forecasting--a job that's delegated to NOAA.

"Space weather forecasting is still in its infancy, but we're making rapid progress," said Director of NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center Thomas Bogdan.

"We know it is coming but we don't know how bad it is going to be," Fisher told Reneke. "Systems will just not work. The flares change the magnetic field on the Earth and it's rapid, just like a lightning bolt. That's the solar effect."

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Video at top of post from AP as seen on http://www.wdsu.com/news/24481903/detail.html 8/2/2010