Obama more popular than Reagan, Clinton at this point in their respective presidencies

May 5, 2010

To hear some of the Tea Partiers tell it, President Obama is about as popular as a case of acid reflux. That may be true with some people, but newspaper archive research by The Punditty Project reveals that far from being in political trouble, Obama is actually faring better than both Ronald ReaganRonald ReaganRonald Reagan and Bill ClintonBill Clinton at this point in their respective presidencies.

There are far more polls available today than even 15 years ago, so The Punditty Project uses the Real Clear Politics average as the best indicator of Obama’s popularity. The president’s numbers were at 48.5 percent approval and 44.9 disapproval on May 4, 2010.

In May of 1994, a Harris Poll found then-president Bill Clinton with a 42 percent approval rating and a 56 percent disapproval rating. Clinton eventually made a comeback to handily win re-election over GOP nominee Bob Dole.

In May of 1982, just 44 percent of those surveyed approved of the way then-president Ronald Reagan was handling his presidency. He bounced back to crush Democratic nominee Walter MondaleWalter Mondale in 1984.

Opponents of Obama can take heart, however, in poll numbers from the presidencies of George H.W. Bush and Jimmy Carter (Numbers for GeorgeGeorge W. BushBush are not included in this report because the aftermath of Sept. 11, 2001, led to extremely high favorability ratings for the second President Bush well past the 2002 midterms).

In May of 1990, some 16 months into his presidency, Bush had an overall approval rating of 63 percent while only 24 percent disapproved. Bush lost his re-election bid in 1992, finishing with less than 40 percent of the popular vote in a three-way race between Clinton, himself and Texas billionaire Ross PerotRoss PerotRoss Perot.

In March of 1978, some 51 percent of Americans supported Carter’s performance as president while only 33 percent disapproved. But in November of 1980, Reagan easily trounced the incumbent president.

One never knows until the votes are counted (or not counted, as in the case of Florida in 2000) how a presidential race will turn out, but all those who are writing Obama’s political obituary would be wise to look at recent presidential polling history before concluding that Obama’s best days are behind him.

In the words of the great Yogi BerraYogi BerraYogi Berra, “It ain’t over ‘til it’s over.” Seeing how Obama’s first term isn’t even halfway over, we’ve got a long way to go before we can apply Berra’s wisdom with full certainty.

You say ‘O, Bummer,’ I say ‘Why bother?’ – let’s call the whole thing ... politics.

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