Was Zelaya snookered?

This is an excellent article on the situation in Honduras. The article makes it clear that the agreement signed by Zelaya and Micheletti leaves key elements unclear. Micheletti claims to be going ahead and following the terms of agreement when he himself formed a unity government. However, Zelaya understood that before this unity government was to be formed he would be reinstated through the Congress ratifying the agreement. But the Congress has not even considered the agreement and there is not even a date set for it to do so. Without the Congress ratification there is no agreement for Zelaya and therefore he naturally would not submit any names for the unity government.

Even though time after time the US has recognised Zelaya as the legitimate president of Honduras and even though all the earlier negotiations were predicated upon his return in some fashion as president the US is now saying that it will recognise the November 29 elections whether Zelaya is reinstated or not. This recognition removes any pressure on the coup govt. to reinstate Zelaya. There may still be some resolution of this situation as the two sides are meeting tomorrow. I would not hold my breath though. Any resolution which does arise will probably be another bit of smoke and mirrors.

It would seem that Zelaya will probably not be re-instated or if he is it will be a purely symbolic act of some sort. However given the position of the US there seems no reason for Micheletti to even give in to that. Micheletti has been the winner all along. He has snubbed the OAS, refused them entry to Honduras at one time, and managed to stall negotiations until there is really nothing much left to negotiate except what the article calls quite correctly Zelaya's scrap of paper. However, much of Latin America will now consider US foreign policy in Latin America to be just the same as in the time of Bush. Even countries not associated with the leftism of Venezuela may reject the US accommodation with the Honduran government. With few exceptions such as Colombia and Panama there is a leftish trend in South America and some parts of Central America that could very well lead to further conflict with US attempts to control events.

Zelaya's scrap of paper
Nov 5th 2009 | TEGUCIGALPA
From The Economist print edition

Unless outsiders continue to press, a deal to end a stubborn political conflict risks coming unstuck even before it is implemented

...... Despite the withdrawal of foreign aid, the severing of diplomatic ties and the cancellation of dozens of American visas, Mr Micheletti refused to contemplate Mr Zelaya's restoration. Yet diplomats from the United States took just two days to get the two men to strike a deal that, on paper, ends Honduras's political stalemate. "I cannot think of another example of a country in Latin America that, having suffered a rupture of its democratic and constitutional order, overcame such a crisis through negotiation and dialogue," said Hillary ClintonHillary Clinton, the American secretary of state.

....But the crucial question of Mr Zelaya's reinstatement has been left to Honduras's Congress, which shows no sign of discussing it soon. This week Mr Zelaya was still trapped in the Brazilian embassy, where he has been since sneaking back into the country six weeks ago. The de facto government still says it will arrest him if he ventures outside.

Time is short. A presidential election is due on November 29th. This offers the best way out of the impasse, and Mr Micheletti is desperate for the world to recognise its outcome. Conversely, Mr Zelaya's supporters vow to boycott the poll unless their leader is back in office before then.

The phrasing of the accord seems calibrated to allow both sides to maintain mutually incompatible positions. The de facto government argues that the pact gives free rein to Congress-which voted to name Mr Micheletti president hours after Mr Zelaya's forced exile-to decide on the presidency. Unless and until it restores Mr Zelaya, Mr Micheletti will remain in office. Meanwhile, Mr Zelaya's aides insist that Congress is merely being asked to ratify a pre-existing commitment to reinstate him. If it delays or rejects this, the pact becomes void, they say. "It's an agreement without an agreement," says Efraín Díaz Arrivillaga, a left-of-centre former presidential candidate. "It was designed to leave the key elements open to interpretation."

The assumption has been that the agreement carried a tacit corollary that Congress would swiftly restore Mr Zelaya. His aides encouraged these rumours. "We're almost sure the vote will be in favour," says Carlos Eduardo Reina, his political adviser. "That's what we sense. But I can't provide details."

This confidence may be misplaced. .....

... The United States, which has already reopened its visa office in Tegucigalpa, the capital, appears willing to recognise the elections whether or not Congress votes to restore Mr Zelaya. But most of Latin America is unlikely to follow suit unless Mr Zelaya is reinstated before the ballot-especially since the head of the electoral tribunal says that anyone calling for a boycott will be jailed.

Honduras urgently needs political peace. The months since the coup have seen a collapse in tourism, frequent curfews, roadblocks by Mr Zelaya's supporters and a sharp fall in public investment because of the suspension of foreign aid. All this will shave 2.5% from GDP this year, reckons Manuel Bautista, a local economist. Although Mr Micheletti is hardly an Augusto PinochetAugusto Pinochet or a Fidel CastroFidel Castro, his government has occasionally been heavy-handed. At least three people have been killed by the security forces. Leftist NGOs blame the government for a further 17 deaths. The attorney-general's human-rights office has received around 200 reports of beatings by security forces. "I don't think there's a state policy of repression," says Sandra Ponce, the unit's director. "But there is a complacency regarding abuses by police." Opposition broadcasters have often been blocked.

.... "This is the repetition of 100 years of Honduran history," says Mr Díaz Arrivillaga. "It's the same ghosts: stopping communism, selective violations of human rights, constitutional breaches, and agreements among elites and caudillos sponsored by the United States. It's nothing new." In one of the poorest countries in the region, that lack of novelty is all the more depressing.