An electoral test

Wednesday, November 4, 2009
Local elections in America

by Melissa Gruz, BBC News White House Press Corps for the BBC's Biodun Iginla

Nov 3rd 2009
From Economist.com
“Mini mid-term” elections get under way in America, with Democrats braced for bad news
AFP
VOTERS were at the polls to elect governors in New Jersey and Virginia on Tuesday November 3rd and others were voting in a special election to fill a vacant congressional district in upstate New York. Together, these three races (numerous mayoral contests and state referendums are also taking place) provide the biggest political test for the parties since last year's presidential election. A year since Barack ObamaBarack Obama won that prize, these elections will be studied for clues about the electorate's mood. Facing what looks likely to be a heavy defeat for the Democrats in Virginia and a fight to keep the governor's mansion in New Jersey, the president would be wise to remind people of Tip O'Neill's famous dictum that “all politics is local”. But Mr Obama will not be able to avoid some of the finger-pointing if things go very badly.
At the weekend Mr Obama supported Jon CorzineJon Corzine, the embattled governor of New Jersey, appearing at two rallies. Over the summer polls suggested that Mr Corzine was trailing Chris ChristieChris Christie, his Republican challenger, by large margins. Mr Christie attacked Mr Corzine's record on the local economy and found some traction on ethics issues. Mr Christie has been embarrassed in the last days of campaigning by a bizarre political advert he made featuring a Monty Python sketch. Michael PalinMichael Palin, who appeared in it, criticised the advert and said he was surprised that Mr Christie, a former federal prosecutor, was not aware about copyright infringement.
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At Sunday's rally Mr Obama blamed George BushGeorge Bush (in so many words) for the state's woes. Although Mr Christie retains a tiny lead Democratic activists are fired up for a get-out-the-vote drive and Mr Corzine could still carry the state. <br /> Barring a miracle, there will be no such turnaround in fortunes for Creigh Deeds, the Democratic candidate for governor in Virginia. Mr Deeds has fallen even further in the polls behind Bob McDonnellBob McDonnell, the Republican candidate. If the Democrats lose the governor's mansion here it will be a particularly heavy blow. They have held the one-term office for eight years and one of Mr Obama’s achievements was to carry the state last year, the first time a Democratic presidential candidate had won Virginia since 1964. As in New Jersey, many of the issues in Virginia are centred on the local economy, but the election here is being touted as a referendum about Mr Obama.<br /> Mr Obama's push for policies that herald a return to big government is hugely unpopular with Republicans, and Mr McDonnell has focused on reducing the size of Virginia's budget and lowering taxes. Independents and moderates have warmed to his themes. Democratic operatives are blaming the hapless Mr Deeds for a poor campaign, saying he did not listen to advice from the White House about cementing the support of important Democratic constituencies, such as blacks, and getting them out on election day. Mr Deeds's supporters say his prospects worsened in line with the decline in Mr Obama's approval ratings. Mr Obama did attend a campaign rally for Mr Deeds last week, but the crowds were much smaller and less enthused than “the one” is used to. <br /> The biggest drama, however, comes in an election to fill a vacancy in a congressional district in rural New York, a Republican stronghold near the Canadian border. Republican Party chiefs had backed Dede ScozzafavaDede Scozzafava, who sits in the state Assembly, to contest the seat, but her pro-choice, pro-gay marriage and union-friendly views attracted the ire of conservatives. On October 22nd Sarah PalinSarah Palin fired a missive from her increasingly powerful Facebook page calling on Republican activists to ditch the Republican and support Doug HoffmanDoug Hoffman instead. Mr Hoffman is the candidate for the Conservative Party of New York, an outfit founded in 1962 to rail against Rockefeller liberalism that dominated east coast Republicanism at the time. <br /> Mrs Palin's intervention took even seasoned pundits by surprise. She said that Mr Hoffman best represented the views of conservative Republicans and that “best of all” he was not “annointed by any political machine”, a surprising statement from last year's Republican vice-presidential candidate. “Blurring the lines” between the parties was not the way for the Republicans to win elections, Mrs Palin opined.<br /> Perhaps with one eye on a presidential bid in 2012, Mrs Palin tapped into the rise of “tea-party” conservative activists, who are angry over the expansion of government under Mr Obama and George Bush. They have caused some mischief, pushing against health-care reform and expressing annoyance at Republicans whom they consider to be part of the Washington establishment. Following Mrs Palin's endorsement, Mr Hoffman's coffers filled and Ms Scozzafava found herself out of favour. <br /> On October 31st, amid sinking poll numbers, she abandoned her campaign and on November 1st backed the Democratic candidate, Bill OwensBill Owens; evidence, the tea-partyers said, that she was a Republican in name only. After her stunning departure, the race remains open. The polls give Mr Hoffman a small lead over Mr Owens, but Ms Scozzafava’s name will appear on the ballot and many voters will have posted theirs before she withdrew from the race. <br /> All in all, conservatives seem to be heading to at least two big victories. They will point to a win in Virginia as marking the limits of Mr Obama's charisma. Win or lose in upstate New York they will warn Republicans to toe the line on conservative dogma. But they would be wise to heed a lesson from Newt GingrichNewt Gingrich. Although another presidential hopeful, Tim PawlentyTim Pawlenty, also endorsed Mr Hoffman, the former House speaker backed Ms Scozzafava, the official party choice. This should be taken as a note of caution by activists—Mr Gingrich surely knows a thing or two about conservative overreach. <br /> <br /> <a href="/s/event-4547250/aHR0cDovL3d3dy5lY29ub21pc3QuY29tL3dvcmxkL3VuaXRlZHN0YXRlcy9k aXNwbGF5U3RvcnkuY2ZtP3N0b3J5X2lkPTE0NzkwNDQyJmFtcDtzb3VyY2U9 ZmVhdHVyZXNfYm94X21haW4lMjN0b3A= " mce_href="http://www.allvoices.com/s/event-4547250/aHR0cDovL3d3dy5lY29ub21pc3QuY29tL3dvcmxkL3VuaXRlZHN0YXRlcy9k aXNwbGF5U3RvcnkuY2ZtP3N0b3J5X2lkPTE0NzkwNDQyJmFtcDtzb3VyY2U9 ZmVhdHVyZXNfYm94X21haW4lMjN0b3A= ">Back to top ^^</a> <br /> Readers' comments <i>The Economist</i> welcomes your views.<br /> <a href="/s/event-4547250/aHR0cDovL3d3dy5lY29ub21pc3QuY29tL3dvcmxkL3VuaXRlZHN0YXRlcy9k aXNwbGF5U3RvcnkuY2ZtP3N0b3J5X2lkPTE0NzkwNDQyJmFtcDtzb3VyY2U9 ZmVhdHVyZXNfYm94X21haW4mYW1wO21vZGU9Y29tbWVudCZhbXA7aW50ZW50 PXJlYWRCb3R0b20= " mce_href="http://www.allvoices.com/s/event-4547250/aHR0cDovL3d3dy5lY29ub21pc3QuY29tL3dvcmxkL3VuaXRlZHN0YXRlcy9k aXNwbGF5U3RvcnkuY2ZtP3N0b3J5X2lkPTE0NzkwNDQyJmFtcDtzb3VyY2U9 ZmVhdHVyZXNfYm94X21haW4mYW1wO21vZGU9Y29tbWVudCZhbXA7aW50ZW50 PXJlYWRCb3R0b20= ">View all comments (6)</a><a href="/s/event-4547250/aHR0cDovL3d3dy5lY29ub21pc3QuY29tL3dvcmxkL3VuaXRlZHN0YXRlcy9k aXNwbGF5U3RvcnkuY2ZtP3N0b3J5X2lkPTE0NzkwNDQyJmFtcDtzb3VyY2U9 ZmVhdHVyZXNfYm94X21haW4mYW1wO21vZGU9Y29tbWVudCZhbXA7aW50ZW50 PXBvc3RCb3R0b20= " mce_href="http://www.allvoices.com/s/event-4547250/aHR0cDovL3d3dy5lY29ub21pc3QuY29tL3dvcmxkL3VuaXRlZHN0YXRlcy9k aXNwbGF5U3RvcnkuY2ZtP3N0b3J5X2lkPTE0NzkwNDQyJmFtcDtzb3VyY2U9 ZmVhdHVyZXNfYm94X21haW4mYW1wO21vZGU9Y29tbWVudCZhbXA7aW50ZW50 PXBvc3RCb3R0b20= ">Add your comment</a><br /> Posted by BiodunIginla at <a href="/s/event-4547250/aHR0cDovL2Jpb2R1bi1pZ2lubGEtMi5ibG9nc3BvdC5jb20vMjAwOS8xMS9l bGVjdG9yYWwtdGVzdC5odG1s " mce_href="http://www.allvoices.com/s/event-4547250/aHR0cDovL2Jpb2R1bi1pZ2lubGEtMi5ibG9nc3BvdC5jb20vMjAwOS8xMS9l bGVjdG9yYWwtdGVzdC5odG1s " rel="bookmark"><abbr>12:28 AM</abbr></a> <a href="/s/event-4547250/aHR0cDovL3d3dy5ibG9nZ2VyLmNvbS9lbWFpbC1wb3N0Lmc/YmxvZ0lEPTcz MTUyODE3NzI4OTE3MTg0NyZhbXA7cG9zdElEPTMxMTk4ODQxODc4MTQ3MjQ1 ODQ= " mce_href="http://www.allvoices.com/s/event-4547250/aHR0cDovL3d3dy5ibG9nZ2VyLmNvbS9lbWFpbC1wb3N0Lmc/YmxvZ0lEPTcz MTUyODE3NzI4OTE3MTg0NyZhbXA7cG9zdElEPTMxMTk4ODQxODc4MTQ3MjQ1 ODQ= "> </a> <a href="/s/event-4547250/aHR0cDovL3d3dy5ibG9nZ2VyLmNvbS9wb3N0LWVkaXQuZz9ibG9nSUQ9NzMx NTI4MTc3Mjg5MTcxODQ3JmFtcDtwb3N0SUQ9MzExOTg4NDE4NzgxNDcyNDU4 NA== " mce_href="http://www.allvoices.com/s/event-4547250/aHR0cDovL3d3dy5ibG9nZ2VyLmNvbS9wb3N0LWVkaXQuZz9ibG9nSUQ9NzMx NTI4MTc3Mjg5MTcxODQ3JmFtcDtwb3N0SUQ9MzExOTg4NDE4NzgxNDcyNDU4 NA== "> </a> <a href="../../undefined/" mce_href="http://www.allvoices.com/undefined"></a> 0 comments: <p> <a href="/s/event-4547250/aHR0cHM6Ly93d3cuYmxvZ2dlci5jb20vY29tbWVudC5nP2Jsb2dJRD03MzE1 MjgxNzcyODkxNzE4NDcmYW1wO3Bvc3RJRD0zMTE5ODg0MTg3ODE0NzI0NTg0 " mce_href="http://www.allvoices.com/s/event-4547250/aHR0cHM6Ly93d3cuYmxvZ2dlci5jb20vY29tbWVudC5nP2Jsb2dJRD03MzE1 MjgxNzcyODkxNzE4NDcmYW1wO3Bvc3RJRD0zMTE5ODg0MTg3ODE0NzI0NTg0 ">Post a Comment</a> </p> <a href="/s/event-4547250/aHR0cDovL2Jpb2R1bi1pZ2lubGEtMi5ibG9nc3BvdC5jb20vMjAwOS8xMS9s YS1qdXN0aWNlLXF1aXRzLWFmdGVyLWludGVycmFjaWFsLXdlZC5odG1s " mce_href="http://www.allvoices.com/s/event-4547250/aHR0cDovL2Jpb2R1bi1pZ2lubGEtMi5ibG9nc3BvdC5jb20vMjAwOS8xMS9s YS1qdXN0aWNlLXF1aXRzLWFmdGVyLWludGVycmFjaWFsLXdlZC5odG1s ">Older Post</a> <a href="/s/event-4547250/aHR0cDovL2Jpb2R1bi1pZ2lubGEtMi5ibG9nc3BvdC5jb20v " mce_href="http://www.allvoices.com/s/event-4547250/aHR0cDovL2Jpb2R1bi1pZ2lubGEtMi5ibG9nc3BvdC5jb20v ">Home</a> Subscribe to: <a href="/s/event-4547250/aHR0cDovL2Jpb2R1bi1pZ2lubGEtMi5ibG9nc3BvdC5jb20vZmVlZHMvMzEx OTg4NDE4NzgxNDcyNDU4NC9jb21tZW50cy9kZWZhdWx0 " mce_href="http://www.allvoices.com/s/event-4547250/aHR0cDovL2Jpb2R1bi1pZ2lubGEtMi5ibG9nc3BvdC5jb20vZmVlZHMvMzEx OTg4NDE4NzgxNDcyNDU4NC9jb21tZW50cy9kZWZhdWx0 ">Post Comments (Atom)</a>