Out of the running

Monday, November 2, 2009

Afghanistan's presidential election

by Nasra Ismail and Biodun Iginla, BBC News

Nov 1st 2009 | KABUL
From The Economist print edition
Abdullah Abdullah pulls out of the presidential race, deepening the political crisis in Afghanistan
AFP/AP/Shutterstock TO THUNDEROUS applause Abdullah Abdullah announced yet another twist in Afghanistan’s convoluted path to finding a new leader. The second-placed candidate for the presidency announced on Sunday November 1st, to a tent full of thousands of his supporters, that he would not participate in a run-off vote set for Saturday.
Virtually all the conditions he set for reform of Afghanistan’s blatantly partisan Independent Election Commission (IEC) had been rejected out of hand. So had his requests for the suspension of some of Hamid Karzai’s cabinet ministers in the run up to the vote. But as his flag-waving audience roared approval, diplomats across Kabul groaned at the prospect of a run-off vote with just one candidate, Mr Karzai, in contention.
Up until Saturday night a deal to avoid yet another political crisis seemed possible. At one stage it looked like Mr Karzai had been persuaded to accept that his rival should have some say over some important cabinet posts. But at the last moment Mr Abdullah decided that he could not take part.
Throughout the turmoil of recent weeks hopes had remained that the election process might run through to a conclusion. Now a run-off election could take place amid an ongoing insurgency, with just one candidate in contention. Both the IEC and the Karzai campaign were quick to agree that the vote should go ahead as planned. But Mr Karzai is in a bind. He does not want to be declared as president by unconstitutional means nor would he benefit much from being elected after a negligible turnout in a poll his main opponent has abandoned.
Kai Eide, the UN chief in the country, says he wants to bring the “electoral process to a conclusion in a legal and timely matter.” Many of his colleagues think the least disagreeable option is to simply to hand victory to Mr Karzai on the basis that he won the largest share of the votes in the first round of voting on August 20th.
But the legality of this course is dubious. the Afghan constitution says that the president must be elected with more than half the votes and that a second round must be called if no single candidate passes the 50% threshold. There may be enough wiggle-room in Afghanistan’s badly written and contradictory constitution to get round this problem, particularly if the Supreme Court rules on events. But legal experts say that the court, which is stuffed full of Karzai loyalists, does not have the authority to rewrite the laws of the land.
“Whatever he does he will not be legitimate”, says Ahmed Wali Massoud, a leading Afghan politician and a senior member of Mr Abdullah’s campaign team. People like Mr Massoud hope that the lack of a clear legal mechanism to declare Mr Karzai the victor and the unattractiveness of running a second round will force some new, entirely different process that would favour their man.
That might include the appointment of an interim government until a new election can be held after the winter snows have melted and the IEC has undergone radical surgery to rid it of Mr Karzai’s cronies. Another plan would be to call aloya jirga, the traditional grand gathering of Afghanistan’s power-brokers, which could chose a new leader and perhaps amend the constitution with an eye to holding fresh elections some time in the future.
Both plans would merely extend the country’s protracted period of political limbo. An interim government would not have the political authority necessary to give the sort of strong leadership necessary to deal with the country’s pressing problems.
Another option is to appoint Mr Karzai rapidly so he can later “earn” his legitimacy by tackling corruption and delivering real improvements to the lives of Afghans. But Mr Karzai’s critics have grave doubts that the man who has led the country for eight years will suddenly become a reformed character.
“I don’t think such a government would last five years,” says Mr Massoud. “It will be very short lived and the security situation will deteriorate day by day. The whole country would disintegrate.” Amid the confusion there is one certainty—108 days after it officially started, Afghanistan’s election is still far from over.

Back to top ^^
Readers' comments The Economist welcomes your views.
View all comments (12)Add your comment Posted by BiodunIginla at 10:48 PM Labels: afghanistan, bbc biodun iginla, nasra ismail 0 comments:

Post a Comment

Newer Post Older Post Home Subscribe to: Post Comments (Atom)