Is There A Recovery?

The media and the Obama administration are trumpeting the beginning of the recovery and squabbling over questionable perhaps fraudulent employment figures put out by the White House.
One has to wonder if there really is a recovery or not? The signs of recovery are based upon increased consumer spending at least for homes and a stock market recovery. At the same time the dollar is falling, oil prices are rising and unemployment is increasing. So it’s hard to tell if this is a recovery or not.
My gut feeling is it’s not. What recovery is out there seems to be based on bargain hunting on Wall Street, those who still have money are picking up stocks at great prices and little else. The effects of economic stimulus have been minor and maybe making the situation worse. Now that cash for clunkers has ended car sales are falling and home sales seem only to be driven by the $8,000 home buyer credit. If that ends they could fall, or worse.
One particularly bothersome factor is inflation, the politicians and the Federal Reserve are ignoring it but the Fed has pumped several trillion dollars into the economy to keep credit moving. At the same time the government is spending hundreds of billions it doesn’t have and driving up the national debt. I don’t see how this can go on without creating high inflation. If we get a period of high inflation and stagnant wages we could see real suffering out there.
A really painful situation would be one where there is inflation in one sector of the economy such as gas prices but not elsewhere. This means average people get paid less but pay more for what they have to buy.
Another problem are the job figures, most of the jobs created are government jobs. The private sector isn’t adding jobs and indeed seems to be shedding them. We must also remember that employment statistics are skewed and questionable at best.
For example the government counts a person between jobs with large savings and generous unemployment insurance as unemployed. Meanwhile a person who is barely scraping by on a low paying job is employed. Particularly bothersome is the fact that the government doesn’t count all the underemployed people the person who formerly made good money at a factory but now bags groceries. Nor does it count those who aren’t seeking jobs any longer. If these people were counted the unemployment rate would be 15 or 18% instead of 10% where it is now.
Now I do believe we’ll see recovery but it’s going to take several years and a lot of pain before it comes. Of course any recovery efforts we see will probably soon be delayed by high inflation and its destructive effects.
Saying that a recovery has begun now is to be dishonest and perhaps cruel to the American people.