Back in his old hat?

SUNDAY, NOVEMBER 1, 2009

by Biodun Iginla, BBC News, Tegucigalpa

Oct 31st 2009 | MEXICO CITY
From Economist.com A DEAL BRINGS HOPE OF AN END TO THE POLITICAL CRISIS IN HONDURAS
AP FOUR months after Manuel ZelayaManuel Zelaya was hauled out of bed at gunpoint, flown to Costa Rica in a military plane, and replaced by Roberto Micheletti as president of Honduras, negotiators for the two sides have reached an agreement to put an end to the country’s political crisis. On Thursday October 29th, representatives of both the deposed and de facto presidents declared they would ask the Congress—which voted to name Mr Micheletti president after Mr Zelaya was exiled—to hold a new vote on whether to reinstate him for the remaining three months of his term. They pledged to abide by the result. The deal was hailed for its importance in the consolidation of democracy in the region. There is no doubt that the agreement represents a significant victory for foreign leaders, and particularly for Barack ObamaBarack Obama, whose decision to send a high-level diplomatic mission to Honduras two days earlier provided the decisive push to conclude the talks. It establishes both a path for a possible return to office for Mr Zelaya and stops him from calling a constituent assembly, a body with the job of rewriting the constitution. His opponents say this would have enabled him to eliminate the country’s ban on presidential re-election. With Mr Zelaya’s approval of the deal, the rest of the world will be able to recognise the presidential elections set for November 29th, and to begin restoring the diplomatic relations and financial assistance that were cut off after the coup. But it is far less clear whether the pact will truly end the crisis or whether it simply shifts the venue for addressing it from the negotiating table to the the legislature. Mr Zelaya’s supporters are convinced that the arrangement paves the way for his restoration to power in a matter of days. Although the deal does not set a date for a congressional vote or prejudge its outcome, the deposed president’s camp says their leader would not have accepted the proposal if he had not had strong informal assurances that he would be returned to office promptly. Yet such confidence seems somewhat misplaced. Because Mr Zelaya’s Liberal Party is split over the coup—at least a third of its members are vehemently opposed to his reinstatement—he will need the votes of the rival National Party to obtain a majority. And the Nationals, whose presidential candidate, Porfirio Lobo Sosa, holds a comfortable lead in the polls, would be hard-pressed to vote to restore Mr Zelaya, since their supporters loathe him and they benefit from the Liberals’ split. One leading National politician says the party will probably try to delay a vote on Mr Zelaya’s future until after the presidential election. It is unclear whether such a strategy would be seen as an act of bad faith that undermines the agreement, since the Nationals were not part of the discussions. Moreover, Mr Zelaya’s legal status is yet to be determined. Since both sides agreed not to include an amnesty for political crimes in the deal, the deposed president technically remains a fugitive, facing 18 different charges. He is still safe as a guest at the Brazilian embassy, where he holed up after sneaking into the country a month ago. But he could be arrested the minute he ventures outside. Having insisted for months that Mr Zelaya should be detained and tried as soon as he steps on Honduran soil, the de facto government and the courts will probably have to offer him an amnesty of their own—or at least a delayed prosecution—if they want to retain the support of the rest of the world. Even if the agreement does not provide a definitive answer to Honduras’s political divisions, it should get foreign aid flowing again soon—a critical development for a poor country dependent on external assistance. In that sense, it is a victory for the Honduran people, regardless of whom they call their president for the next three months.
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