The Latin American and Caribbean region is being exposed to populist-political rapidly developing scenario, challenging the security, democracy and governance of the region to a new and serious level of threat. This evolving and emerging situation poses a serious challenge to the international community as new political, religious oriented, radical, international criminal corporations and terrorist groups converge in this new geopolitical map which is in dramatic developing stage in Latin America and the region, and fuelled by the controversial Venezuelan Bolivarian Revolution leaded by Hugo Chavez Frias.
For the last decade, the democracy in Latin America was showing to the international community some improvements, while internally official corruption, crime and lack of effective social programs, weakened the trust of the people, allowing and encouraging the return of populist, leftists and Anti American movements and leaders in the region. Hugo Chavez from Venezuela is the most powerful leader and precursor of these threats and challenges.
President of Venezuela Hugo Chavez has being imposing his radical revolution through a radical change of the Venezuelan Bolivarian Constitution which it will allow Chavez to control all independent public institutions and to keep in power over all judiciary, parliamentary and executive branches. Thus this move, Chavez has been successfully controlling every part of the Venezuelan population and its productive apparatus. Meanwhile, Chavez has been intervening in many countries not only in Latin America, but also in the Caribbean, Africa, Middle East and Asia, where pro Bolivarian revolution cells are expanding in many countries in these regions. Using the oil, to internationally expand his controversial revolution, fueled by a Petro-Dollars policy, Chavez is drawing a new political map in the Latin American region, intervening and affecting not only emerging democracies and governance stability, but the security of the continent. However, it appears that this populist-nationalist-leftist revolution characterized by its “Petro-Diplomacy” has drawn the attention of the international community; some consider this controversial revolution as a reaffirm of changing of the political global map; some others, as a dangerous new global scenario, for its rapidly international expansion, its political agenda and its allies: radical, leftist and populist regimes and extremist leaders. Using the oil as a strategic-political weapon, President Chavez has gained total support from all leftist irregular armed groups in Latin America and internationally as well becoming the next-successor of Fidel Castro regional controversial leadership once Castro dies. After his latest visit to the Middle East region, visiting countries such Iran, Lebanon, Syria; and visiting Byelorussia and North of Vietnam among others, the escalade of the political tension is arising, involving not only the two governments (US-Venezuela), but Cuba and Iran as well. Venezuelan government is backing up Iran in its nuclear development. Chavez has assured several times that in case Iran is attacked or invaded by Americans troops, Venezuelans will die defending Iran. Same It has being told by Chavez for Cuba as well. Also, after Chavez’s speech at the UN, the Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah and his followers declared Chavez a “Hero”. Since the Israel-Hezbollah conflict, Venezuela accused Israel as Genocide and retired his Ambassador from Israel.
Chavez has been denounced for getting involved in internal political affairs in Latin American countries. In Bolivia, Chavez supported economically Evo Morales`s presidency campaign. Actually the Venezuelan government is building two military bases in Bolivia (border with Brazil) with Venezuelan military personnel, and keeps military helicopters and equipments in that country. In Nicaragua, Chavez is the major financer of Daniel Ortega government. The same is being denounced in Paraguay, Same stories apply to Ecuador, Peru (where President Alan Garcia keeps a constant verbal confrontation with Chavez) and other regional countries as well. Brazil’s media has published that the government of Brazil will post intelligence analyst officers in its embassy in Caracas. Spain is requesting Chavez administration for detailed information about Goidezer Odriozola and her husband Arturo Cubillas, both member of ETA. Odriozola is actually executive director of the Venezuelan Presidency Office, and her husband Arturo Cubillas is director of an executive office in the Agricultural and Land Ministry. According to Spain Media, Cubilla was member of the “Comando Madrid” and the “Comando Oker” and participated in attacks where Angel Facal Soto, the police officer Maximo Garcia and the French citizen Joseph Couchot were killed in the mid of 1980.
Some analysts think Chavez is being just rhetorical and non- threatening in his increasing anti-American, anti-capitalism, anti-free trade, anti-neoliberals speeches around the world, believing he will not get anywhere else but trying to get international publicity and become the world and radical voice for a new leftist-political and muslin-radical international movement. Certainly, Chavez has gotten far than that. His administration is increasing programs and agreements to buy military weapons and tech to China, Iran, North Korea, Spain (the deal might not got further) and Russia. Helicopters, Rifles -AK-47-, war airplanes, and other equipments have been already received in Venezuela. Chavez is already about to start manufacturing weapons (one of them: Rifles AK-47) in Venezuela with the assistance of Russia, China and Iran. Actually, Venezuela is the country that has spent more in buying military weapons in Latin America.
Hugo Chavez has increased military training programs on defense provided to small villagers, indigenous and peasants in Venezuela. Chavez is imposing the idea that the US government will invade Venezuela and that –at least- his followers must protect Chavez himself, the revolution and the country. For the last two-three years the Venezuelan military forces with the assistance of Military Cuban advisers has started a wide nation training for habitants of small towns and village, to get prepared to fight against the “white-devil invasion” as Chavez calls it. Also, Chavez is constantly accusing the political opposition leaders and parties of being financed and following orders from the US administration. New threats with old and new actors are already present and expanding in Latin America. A new geopolitical scenario involving criminal corporations, drug cartels and terrorism groups in one side, and extremist and anti-American regimes which are developing and spreading in the region (Latin America and the Caribbean) in the other side, while the international community is terribly dealing with an economic recession which it will fuel the inflammatory agenda against, and blaming the industrialized world and its capitalism in the region.
GEOPOLITICAL ANALYSIS, A SECURITY APPROACH
The Venezuelan revolution is believe to affect –mainly- Latin American countries, encouraging the return of populist, leftists and Anti American movements attracting and developing political and strategic allies and regimes, who seek a great opportunity to based in Latin America its dangerous agendas hidden under energy, commercial, political and cultural agreements. Chavez’s regime is intensively buying military equipments (vessels, helicopters, submairines, weapons), establishing military tactical-technology assistance and cooperation agreements with China, North Vietnam, Russia, Belorussia and Iran (among others). Chavez’s objective is to cut tie/dependence of any technology, military field, and eventually economy with westerns countries politically close to the American government. A multi-polar world (or alternative world movement) will arise in this pretended new-projected international scenario, characterized by extremist-fundamentalist, communist and totalitarian regimes, pretending to be the world’s leadership of a new social and political radical movement. This project has been carefully planned since early Chavez’s arrival to power. Since then, Latin American leftist movements and other international communist parties, and pro-communist/socialist governments have been in close contact with Chavez regime to gradually develop and radically implement the Bolivarian leftist revolution first in Venezuela, then Latin America and the Caribbean, and finally, to increase and motivated all international social, leftist, and humanitarian groups in the world with this project. For this purpose, Chavez started a political approach to governments in the region who supported his revolution. Governments of Argentina, Brazil, Bolivia, Uruguay, Cuba, Nicaragua, Honduras and other Caribbean governments have received the grace of Chavez under energy and financing of social projects. Venezuela has also been the main factor and source to bring new allies to Latin America. Iran, Russia and China are now the main or principal investors and sellers to the region. Iran, China and Russia has developed such a high level of close relationship with Venezuela, that besides Cuba, who has about 20,000 intelligence and military advisors in Venezuela, Iran has hundreds of military and security advisors who are already involved in research and develop of new military and security structure and policy in Venezuela. Iranians are also involved in developing nuclear devices and power sources in Venezuela, and official direct flights between Caracas-Teheran have raise questions about how far this has gone. Iran has an extended industrial investment in Venezuela from agricultural equipments to vehicles, and bicycles. Now Iran has expanded its operations to Bolivia, and Nicaragua, and their presence in Honduras along with the Cubans was very active before the Cup-de-Etat in Honduras. On the 24 of July, high officials from the Israel Foreign Affairs Ministry denounced that the Venezuelan government has been providing Venezuelan ID´s to Iranian nationals to move around the region provoking major security concerns, and also denounced the active operations of Hamas cells in Venezuela. Caracas and Tel Aviv has been also involved in a constant diplomatic crisis as the Venezuelan regime is backing up the Iranian government and also supporting the Hamas group. In the last few months there has been some physical attacks against Israeli mosque in Caracas and another Venezuelan cities as well, all of them executed by the Bolivarian revolution activists. Muslim radical groups are also more dynamic than before many Latin American and Caribbean countries, as well as anti-Israel demonstrations and even threats/attacks against its assets and its people in the region is being happening. This dramatic and violent developing situation is affecting other sectors such: the Catholic Church, big transnational corporations and so on.
Russia has also been encouraged by the Venezuelan regime to have military presence in Venezuela. Chavez invited the Russian government for a joint military naval (end of 2008, and air exercise on march 2009 when Russian sent two strategic bomber planes T-60 with a capacity of 12 nuclear warhead each; afterwards, the Venezuelan government invited and welcome the Russian government to build military bases in Venezuela, The Russian government Anatoly Zhijarev, Chief of the strategic Russian air forces already confirmed that the Russian government is considering to establish two military bases, one in Cuba and the other in Venezuela. In response to the Colombian move *, Chavez has requested (July 24, 2009) the Russian military industry to deliver an entire tank division to be deployed along the Venezuelan-Colombian border. In the last month, Chavez has been instructed the Venezuelan military forces to get ready for deployment and combat station in Honduras, and in the border with Colombia.
Colombia * is the closest US ally in the region, and as a response to Chavez military development with Iran and Russia, along with Chavez ties to Colombian terrorist groups, Colombia´s president Uribe invited the US government to build military bases in Colombia, so the latest development in this increasing political crisis is Chavez buying additional military equipments (Tanks) to be immediate deployed in the Venezuela-Colombia border.
Colombian-Venezuelan diplomatic crisis has arise in the last few days, as Colombian military forces seized some rocket launchers AT4 from the FARC and after some investigations it was found that these equipments were recently bought by the Venezuelan government to Sweden (Saab AB Company). The Venezuelan government bought these equipments for the Army and most of them ended in the FARC hands. About ten days ago I wrote about the FARC in Caracas buying military rocket launchers.
Honduras latest political crisis with the deposition or Cup against Zelaya, has brought up a new wave of reaction against the expansion of the leftist Bolivarian revolution in the region. Before the cup de etat against his administration, Zelaya was heavenly involved with Chavez revolution, receiving all support from Caracas. During a special event where Chavez gave Zelaya some Iranian-build agricultural equipments; during Zelaya´s speech he said that with the assistance from Venezuela and Cuban, hundreds of Cuban medical and social promoters, and that his government (Zelaya´s) was heading to the socialist, Zelaya ended his speech with “Patria, Socialismo o Muerte” (Land, Socialism or Death) which is an expression used by the Cuban and the Venezuelan revolution. Afterwards, Zelaya started some movement in the congress, and with popular public demonstration trying to run again for the presidency for as long as he wanted, as it happened in Venezuela.
Venezuela regime has been providing Zelaya with all logistic and support to his return to power. Chavez has mobilized hundreds of his radical groups to the border of Nicaragua and even inside Honduras to be ready for any or the leader (Chavez) order to act or create violence in Honduras. As Chavez do not recognizes the current administration of Honduras, and the only legitimate government Chavez accepts is Zelaya´s, Chavez is ready to military intervene in Honduras upon Zelaya´s request; for this scenario, Chavez has mastered some regional crisis between Ecuador and Colombia, and even the direct intervention of Nicaragua in Honduras, so if the time and circumstances are right, Venezuela will intervene with its military forces in Honduras. This last resource will depend of some variants and factors such the OAS, ONU and the US government approach to this crisis.
SECURITY ANALYSIS (CRIME AND TERRORISM)
According to foreign intelligence agencies, Venezuela has reached the highest level of development and activity of organized crime, drug and weapons trafficking and the increasing presence of international terrorist groups.
Before and after Chavez’s arrival to power, crime was already one of the main concerns of Venezuelans; currently, crime activity has gotten to its highest level of its history in the past six years. The Venezuelan political crisis, the abandon of the police structure and development by the governments (national, regional or state and municipal) that has ended in a sensitive national police crisis in Venezuela, which will allow the national government to implement a new socialist revolutionary model of national police force under the direct command of the president of Venezuela (in this case, the national police force will be considered as another component of the military forces). Meanwhile, the organize crime has been rapidly expanding and strengthen its operation in Venezuela. New crime activities have emerged from this situation and none effective and programmed policies has been implemented so far. The national government has announced that once the national police (as one national force, eliminating or reducing the state and municipal police forces) is implemented, a new pro-community police will nationally arise. This announcing has created fear and critics among Venezuelans who already know that this will be more a political-oriented police force. So far, it seems that the Venezuelan government has been successful in its strategic to control and implement policy that benefit its revolution. Nowadays, in most police academy and police stations new training and studies programs have been imposed, these studies deal with socialism, communism, and the new Bolivarian thinking. The word “Camarada” –Comrade- is an increasing and even a must be said in public institutions.
As a consequence crime has gotten so complex and almost non-controlling, that it creates a great environment for the government in an immediate public effect, which is the creation of an immediate and effective policy to control crime, which is the National Police Force and the communitarian political oriented police. The government already knows that organized crime and specifically drug and weapon trafficking, kidnapping, “sicariato” or the “hit man” industry, are in their best moment now. Official corruption is stronger than ever involving police, military, judiciary and executive governments in its higher levels and controlled by drug cartels, organized crime, gangs, and terrorist groups. The government has certainly achieved some successfully operations against drug cartels, but it seems the operations were done only on international political purpose.
THE VENEZUELAN BOLIVARIAN REVOLUTION –VBR- AND THE COLOMBIAN REVOLUTIONARY ARMED FORCES –FARC-; A LOOK OF ITS LATEST DEVELOPMENT.
After a decade of the arrival of Hugo Chavez to the presidency of Venezuela, the Bolivarian Revolution has become an icon to the new tendency for a regional or hemispheric communist leader to cover up the eventual absent of Cuba´s Fidel Castro. Hugo Chavez who in 1992, attempted a failed Coup de Etat in Venezuelan; using a strong verbal vocabulary constantly attacking the western culture and mainly the US administration, and capitalism, has become a political regional leader who has accelerated the return of pro-communist governments in Latin America in the last years.
With a strong financial platform –from the Venezuelan Oil and Gas industry-, President Chavez has successfully been intervening in other Latin American countries political issues, and even financing political campaigns to extend his revolution in the Latin America and the Caribbean region. Chavez has been also financing and military assisting the regional guerrillas movements in Central and South America, being the world oldest and strongest guerrillas-terrorist group.- THE FARC, the ones who is considered the most closest ally of Chavez revolution. The Venezuelan Bolivarian Revolution and the FARC are even considered to be military allies, allowing the FARC to military intervene in case Venezuela is attacked by foreign forces.
Venezuela´s revolution has also developed strong security and defense agreement and cooperation programs with Iran, Russia, China and Cuba mainly to develop a strong regional military base to penetrate and establish a new front against the US. It has been noticed and reported about the presence in Venezuela of known and suspects’ terrorist operatives from the Middle East and other region of the world. Certainly, Chavez has even gotten far than that.
The FARC active and openly presence in Venezuela has been active since 6 years ago, when reports from foreign intelligence agencies proved the close relationship between Chavez and the FARC. Eventually, this close relationship became public by President Chavez and the high officers from the FARC. Chavez has named former Interior Affairs minister Chacin as his key man to coordinate all activities between the Bolivarian revolution and the FARC.
The FARC main activity in Venezuela is to establish a safe area from the conflict zones in Colombia, to provide medical treatment to all terrorist wounded in combat, and be a safe point of transportation from Venezuela to Cuba –also to receive medical treatment-. To establish front-legal business, and to safely organized their international criminal and terrorist network,. Initially, the FARC´s financial sources were kidnapping, and to provide security to drug cartels in the first stage of the drug industry (growing and processing). As the world drug demand grows, the FARC established some Units (Combat Front) to begin with the whole process to get independent in the global drug market as supplier. Establishing strategic alliances in South and Central America, the Caribbean, the US, Canada, as well as Europe, Asia and the Middle East, the FARC have established a strong network to provide drugs to established or emerging drug markets, to buy weapons and to laundry the money from their activity, and to expand and intensify its support and propaganda internationally.
Actually, the FARC is active in many countries in this hemisphere, as well as in Europe and the Middle East, and FARC operatives have been expanding their networks all over the world and establishing social and political alliances with national and local groups, including international political groups (from different countries).
WHAT IS THE IMPLICATION FOR NORTH AMERICA?
AS I Stated early in this report, the Venezuelan Bolivarian revolution, along with its closes allies, includes: Iran, Cuba, Russia, Bolivia, Ecuador, Nicaragua, and other emerging extremist or radical regimes not only in Latin America, but internationally, have been developing a sub-regional front against the US government. Already, Russia has conducted military exercises with Venezuelan military forces, using nuclear warships and planes, and the Venezuelan government has invited the Russian to establish military bases in Venezuelan soil. Also, Venezuela has bought and still buying Russian military planes, submarines, military weapon and other military equipments, which already concern the regional and international community.
With Iran, Venezuela has developed a strong and close relationship with the Iranian Regime. So far, Iran is among the second or the third investor in Venezuela and the rest of many Latin America countries, and there are already signed and on military agreements and treaties between Iran and Venezuela, and Bolivia. Venezuela has been secretly working with the Iranian on nuclear devices and exploiting the Venezuelan uranium mines. There are already direct government-planes flights from Caracas to Teheran. Trade and investment deals between Iran and Latin America now total well over $20 billion. Iran—not Brazil, Canada, or Spain—is now a major player in Venezuela, Nicaragua, Ecuador and Bolivia Economy. Direct air links between Caracas and Tehran have been established, with allegedly lack customs controls. Iran has beefed up its regional diplomatic representation, and some analysts have suggested that Bolivia’s large uranium deposits may be on Iran’s global shopping list.
So far, and because of...