Swine Flu Will Reach 2 Billion People...

From: Stephen Carter, Ph.D.

If you are wondering where my assertion comes from that someone within your immediate family will begin exhibiting swine flu symptoms before the pandemic has run its course, with a likelihood greater than 70 percent, it is based on the fact that this pandemic will eventually infect more than 2 billion people. From that number you can easily figure out the likelihood that a three-member family will escape infection (it is 3 chances in 10). I will not bore you with the calculation. Because I have a Ph.D. in physics you can assume that I can do back of the envelope calculations without excessive difficulty.

Some families will be able to reduce that likelihood of infection significantly by getting themselves innoculated before swine flu reaches their front door. Unfortunately, for most families, they will not be given that chance. You will learn why later in this page.

Now, if you are less than 41 years of age you will have never experienced a pandemic, so you can be forgiven for being skeptical about the need to prepare. This may explain why virtually nobody has taken this pandemic seriously to date. No one has prepared themselves, no one has a clue what they would do if swine flu mutated tomorrow and began hospitalizing people in huge numbers. It is a curious phenomenon of human nature, but people simply refuse to acknowledge risk until it is too late to act to protect themselves against it. You see this in the period leading up to someone's first earthquake, or hurricane - the threat just does not seem all that dreadful until the moment they find themselves caught in one, at which point they find that their thinking changes dramatically.

Trust me, this is not something you want to happen to you.

If you are not sure that swine flu will actually show up in your community, this graph from the CDC shows why it is a certainty:


What does this graph show? Simply that the number of swine flu infections (the orange bars) has NOT been damped out during the summer months as happens with most influenza viruses (like the seasonal strains shown by the blue and green bars). No, the new strain has marched on regardless, and will continue to do so.

Expectations are that the fall and winter seasons of 2009-2010 will see a MASSIVE UPSWING in the number of H1N1 swine flu infections. In fact it seems to have begun as of mid September 2009. The image below shows the percentage of doctor's visits for influenza-like symptoms. The red line shows the numbers for 2009, and the very early arrival of flu season (like nearly 5 months early). This is why you only have a very short time to prepare, which you still can do if you act right now. If you leave this for a couple of weeks you can expect to be in panic mode as you discover all flu prevention products have been cleared from the shelves of stores across the nation.

Note: The beginning of September 2009 is marked by week 35 in this graph. The bumps around week 7 (end of February) mark the arrival of seasonal flu. The explosion of flu cases in September is attributed to the gathering momentum of swine flu now that school is back in session and children (the primary vectors of flu) begin moving the virus through communities.