Iran’s intentions

IRAN’S disclosure about its upcoming uranium enrichment facility has expectedly upset the US and its western allies. As it is the two sides have been trading charges and counter-charges since 2003 when Iran’s nuclear programme came to light.

The UN Security Council has even imposed sanctions on Iran and now there is talk of tightening them in a bid to check Tehran’s ‘nuclear ambition’. It is a pity that the issue has acquired crisis dimension and become a major destabilising factor in Middle East politics. While the West, particularly the US, has been extremely sceptical and refused to believe Iran’s assurances that its programme is designed to generate power for civilian use, Iran has not been sufficiently reconciliatory and open in its dealings with the IAEA either. It has not submitted all its plants to comprehensive inspection by IAEA investigators. This has left the on-again, off-again dialogue between the P5+1 and Tehran on the rocks.

An additional difficulty came in the form of the Bush administration’s ham-fisted style of conducting foreign policy. Even though US intelligence certified that Iran had not been producing nuclear bombs since 2003, Washington continued to engage in polemical exchanges that only escalated the tension between the two countries.

The silver lining in the Iranian nuclear cloud is that the US under Barack ObamaBarack Obama has extended the olive branch to President AhmadinejadPresident Ahmadinejad and expressed his willingness to enter into negotiations. On Oct 1 the five permanent members of the UN Security Council plus Germany will be meeting Iranian negotiators in Geneva to discuss their differences. The disclosures about the new enrichment plant near Qom could be so timed as to enable the two sides to flex their muscles before they enter into a serious dialogue.

There is much to discuss and now this new dispute has erupted. Whether Iran was required to inform the IAEA about its new facility much before it did so on Monday would depend on the terms of its safeguards agreements, the additional protocols and subsidiary agreements with the atomic agency. Iran believes it has done nothing wrong and insists that its uranium enrichment will not be of weapons grade. Resorting to a lot of hair-splitting arguments, the West has been strongly critical of Iran and called for stronger sanctions. The US has managed to persuade Russia to harden its stance somewhat but China is still insisting on a negotiated settlement. Beijing is averse to sanctions which will affect its booming trade with Iran. A lot will now depend on the degree to which Iran is prepared to cooperate with the IAEA inspectors who alone