Why the Missile Defense Change Isn't the Larger Issue

Why the Missile Defense Change Isn’t the Larger Issue

By : Stephen Estes

18 September, 2008

On September 17, 2009 President Obama under Direction from US Defense Secretary Robert GatesDefense Secretary Robert Gates opted to shift gears with regard to an Eastern European missile defense system that was put into motion under the Bush administration. The decision to replace Bush’s plan has been met with stern opposition and criticism from some in Congress, the media and others claiming that the move will embolden Russia and shun our allies in that region.

In this instance I am going to have to agree with Obama and Gates, but don’t boo and hiss just yet. I am going to explain to you why it is of little consequence to us or our allies what kind of defense system is put in place. You see my friends, this missile defense issue is merely the tip of a very, very large ice-burg. There is a lot at stake in Europe and a lot of information that isn’t being reported on in traditional channels or that has not been put together in order to paint the whole picture. What’s being reported are only individual pixels.

I would like to begin this report by explaining why the shift in missile defense strategy is prudent. The most important issues to keep in mind are the timing and the time frame. The original missile defense system would not have been in full operation until 2017. The new plan shaves some six years off the completion date. In addition, most of the infrastructure is already in place to get the system fully operational. As for the timing of the announcement - the President and his advisors are more than aware that recent posturing by the Russians, movements around Eastern Europe and the Black Sea as well as a revelation with regards to Iranian nuclear progress have lent to expedite completion of an operable missile defense system. This is a timely reorganization move and it’s implementation is crucial to rapidly approaching events.

What we are hearing about the most in the news is the Iranian nuclear threat. One day the reports claim that there is no credible eminent threat to the safety of the United States or it’s allies. The next report will tell us that the Iranians are indeed a threat and close to having nuclear capabilities.

The truth about Iran is this ladies and gentlemen : Iran has been diligently engaged in the pursuit of nuclear technology, both peaceful and military under the direction of the Mullahs for many years. The following is an excerpt from the November 2004, CIA 721 Report :

“The United States remains convinced that Tehran has been pursuing a clandestine nuclear weapons program, in contradiction to its obligations as a party to the Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty (NPT). During 2003, Iran continued to pursue an indigenous nuclear fuel cycle ostensibly for civilian purposes but with clear weapons potential. International scrutiny and International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) inspections and safeguards will most likely prevent Tehran from using facilities declared to the IAEA directly for its weapons programs as long as Tehran remains a party to the NPT. However, Iran could use the same technology at other, covert locations for military applications.”

Make no mistake, Iran is a rogue regime that supports terrorism and condemns the United States. The true power in Iran is wielded by the Mullahs who’s ideology is strongly Anti-American, Anti-Israel, Anti-Capitalist. They do not approve of our system of government or our open value system. The Mullahs want America destroyed, pure and simple. They will lie about any of there intentions if it furthers their immediate safety and can prevent the international community from infringing on their ability to pursue enrichment and weapons progress. Iran should not be trusted to keep their word or to tell the truth. They are dangerous and once nuclear-equipped, an immediate threat to our security and the security of their enemies (mainly Israel).

Iran should never be underestimated.

In October of 2003, Iran signed a treaty with the EU that promised they would cease activities to pursue nuclear technology in exchange for certain economic benefits. Of course they reneged on the agreement and started to build centrifuges to enrich uranium in 2004. Since 1988, Iran has explored about ten mines throughout their country where uranium is present and estimated they could pull up to thirty thousand tons of it. The uranium has to be converted from yellow cake form into uranium hexafluoride gas and then further convert in centrifuges where it is enriched. Twenty seven tons yields enough to produce about five nuclear weapons. They have thirty thousand tons of it.

Of course Iran can claim enrichment for peaceful purposes such as fuel for reactors, but everyone knows the real reason they want enriched uranium. Iran’s energy surplus is massive and nuclear power is not at all needed to supplement their usage needs. Even after their claims that they abandoned their nuclear endeavors, Iran continued enrichment activities at over three hundred clandestine locations spread all over the country with centrifuges built underground to hide detection as well as a heavy water facility in Arak that was revealed by the NCRI.

Fast forward to present day. Immediately following the Obama administrations press conference announcing the shift in missile defense plans, an AP story revealed a secret IAEA report that claims Iran now has the prerequisite technology and information to produce nuclear weapons. In addition, the satellite that Iran launched in February is believed to be a component of a long range delivery system.

Israel has already threatened military force to destroy Iran’s production capabilities and recently dispatched Naval craft in the area. The stage has already been set for a new war. Israel is threatening to go on the offensive with or without international support and Iran has been stockpiling hundreds of missiles and positioning troops along strategic lines. If provoked, Israel will strike and Iran will strike back. Israel will use any means necessary to stop Iran and though they do not confirm possession of nuclear arms, a former nuclear technician, Mordechai Vanunu leaked evidence that experts have claimed indicates Israel has the sixth largest nuclear stockpile in the world.

All of this information lends weight to the assertion that Obama was correct to abandon plans for a defensive network that would take eight to nine more years to become fully functioning. Time is of the essence here.

There remains the assertion that we withdrew our plans to appease Russia. This claim is false. In the grand scheme of things, Russia’s increasingly cold attitude towards America is based on other actions we have been taking in their region. The missile defense system was only one of the points that Russia found disturbing regarding the US.

The vast majority of Americans are unaware of a giant chess game the United States has been playing. The US military has been strategically positioning troops and weapons throughout Europe and the East. We have been building military alliances and assisting with training activities and finance throughout the region, preparing an Iranian war scenario and a very possible conflict involving the Russians.

The Russian equation :

Last year Russia was engaged in a five day war with the former Soviet Union country of Georgia. Immediately following hostilities, Joseph BidenJoseph Biden arrived in Georgia with a pledge of a billion dollars in assistance. US and NATO warships headed to the Georgian port city of Batumi to deliver aid to civilians which the Russians claimed to be military supplies and weapons. A month later an inspection envoy visited the country followed by a December revelation that produced the “United States-Georgia Charter on Strategic Partnership”.

September 9 of this year NATO visited Georgia to start a program of military development. On the 14th the United States visited the Georgian Ministry of Defense to begin a review process that will lead to national security revision. On the 18th the US will be working to integrate the military forces of Georgia and Azerbaijan (on the border with Iran) ahead of military plans relating to the security of the Black Sea and the Caucasus as well as joint war plans against Iran. At the same time, Georgia has been active in naval impound activities against ships of Abkhazia (a Russian supported country) origin due to shipping rights. Russia has cautioned that continuing activity against Abkhazia by Georgia will only work to deepen the possibility of Russian military intervention.

The Georgians are threatening Abkhazia and the Russians are threatening Georgia. If Georgia utilizes military action against Abkhazia, Russia is obligated to respond and protect. If anyone goes to war against Georgia, the United States is obligated to respond and protect. You can see here that a wrong move by anyone here will result in US forces engaging Russian forces on the battlefield.

The US has recently gained seven new military bases in Bulgaria and Romania under Joint Task Force East (JTF-East) and has started stationing warplanes and troops. In addition, we have major military bases and troops in Turkey (to whom we have recently supplied eight billion dollars worth of PAC-3 interceptor missiles and three hundred Patriot missiles as well as AWACS) and Iraq, Kosovo, Afghanistan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Uzbekistan, Kuwait, Bahrain, Ukraine, Azerbaijan and Moldova. Moldova is currently facing tensions with Transdniester as they attempt to enact a land blockade against them. Trandsdniester is a Russian Ally and yet another avenue on which to travel toward war with Russia.

With all this positioning and posturing going on, it’s not surprising that the US and Israeli militaries will be holding their “Juniper Cobra” war games to test air and missile defense technology.

For me, all signals seem to point to an impending new war. This new conflict will most likely start as US or Israeli strike against Iran. The move is certain to spark off additional conflicts that will pave the way for high tensions and eventual military conflict in the Balkans that will involve Russia. This seems pre-determined and is just a matter of time. Unfortunately it seems that the time may come sooner rather than later. The move to scrap the missile defense system for an immediately available system is a prudent move if my suspicions are correct. In a war of that magnitude though, does the system really matter? A war in these regions is a game changer, it will result in the long feared third world war. I guess time will prove my prediction to be true or false. Let’s pray I am wrong.