Cards' slugger Pujols still has outside shot at winning National League's Triple Crown

Sept. 11, 2009

St. Louis Cardinals first-baseman Albert PujolsAlbert PujolsAlbert Pujols homered twice and drove in three runs in the Cardinals’ 5-1 win over the Brewers Wednesday in Milwaukee, giving him some eye-popping statistics with 21 regular season games remaining for the National League Central-leading Cardinals.

Pujols is currently perched on 47 home runs, 124 Runs Batted In and a .331 batting average. He leads Arizona’s Mark Reynolds by six home runs and trails Milwaukee slugger Prince FielderPrince FielderPrince Fielder by just one RBI, but he’s a whopping 26 points behind Florida Marlins sweet-swinging shortstop Hanley Ramirez.

Earlier this summer, before the Cards’ first-baseman experienced an uncharacteristic slump, baseball fans heard a lot of speculation about Pujols’ chances for winning the Triple Crown. The last player to lead his league in Home Runs, RBIs and batting average was the venerable and much-loved Carl Yastrzemski of the Boston Red Sox in 1967, when he hit 44 HRs, drove in 121 runs and posted a .326 average.

Based on a simple glance at the batting average category, one might assume that another season will pass without a player matching Yaz’s monumental achievement.

Probably so, but maybe not.

Let’s use a Matt HollidayMatt HollidayMatt Holliday analogy to look a little closer at what would have to happen for Pujols to overtake Ramirez.

Holliday joined the Cardinals in late July and proceeded to hit 5 HRs with 22 RBIs and a .475 batting average his first 20 games with the Redbirds. As off-the-charts impressive as those numbers are, it’s also a given that a red-hot Albert Pujols is capable of matching that torrid pace. The Cardinals have 21 games remaining, with days off the next two Thursdays and the last Monday in September. For our purposes, let’s assume Cards skipper Tony La RussaTony La RussaTony La Russa rests Pujols at least once, meaning he’ll play in 20 more games, and that he continues to average 3.52 at-bats per game.

If Pujols plays in 20 more games, he’ll get around 70 more at-bats this season, finishing with around 560 trips to the plate. If he were to somehow match Holliday’s numbers from earlier this summer, going 33-for-70 to give him a .471 average to close out the season, the Dominican-born Pujols would finish with 195 hits in 560 at-bats, giving him a .348 average for 2009. If he closes out the year going 34-for-70 (a .486 clip), he would hit .350.

Even with those stratospheric hypothetical numbers, he still wouldn’t pass fellow Dominican Ramirez’s current .357 mark. But what if Ramirez – who hit .292 in his 2006 rookie year, .332 in 2007 and .301 last year – cooled down to a mere .300 average from here on out?

This is where it gets interesting. As of Sept. 10, a day off for both the Cardinals and the Marlins, Ramirez had 177 hits in 494 at-bats giving him a .357 average. If he continues to average 3.83 at-bats per game, he’ll get another 90 or so plate appearances if he plays in all 23 of the Marlins’ remaining games. A 27-for-90 performance from here on out would be .300 on the nose and give him a .349 average for the year, still a point ahead of a Pujols who nearly matches Holliday’s first 20 games as a Cardinal - but coming up a point short of a Pujols who barely exceeds Holliday’s numbers.

But if Ramirez should slip into slump territory and hits, say, .244 the rest of the way (22-for-90, giving him exactly 200 hits on the year), his season average would be .334. What would it take for Pujols to beat that?

He would have to stay hot, but not as hot as Holliday was right after joining the Cardinals. If Pujols closes out the year by hitting .371 (26-for-70), he would hit .335 for 2009, giving him the batting title in the event Ramirez slumps to the degree referred to earlier.

Holding onto the HR leads seems likely for Pujols. Surpassing Fielder in the RBI category is by no means a certainty, but Pujols is certainly within striking range.

Ramirez hit. 467 for the seven-game stretch ending Sept. 9, while Pujols hit .462. Can they both keep it up? Not likely. Who will stay hot, and who will fade, if only slightly?

Both Ramirez and Pujols are outstanding hitters, but Pujols is in a class by himself. The 42 years since Yaz’s epic achievement are by far the longest period in baseball history that the game has gone without a Triple Crown winner; Pujols wasn’t even be born until 1980. Could this finally be the year that the record books get updated? The odds are long, but if anybody can beat them, you’ll find him wearing a No. 5 and playing first base for the St. Louis Cardinals.

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