Estimates of Gross Domestic Productfor the first quarter (April-June) of 2009-10

The Central Statistical Organisation (CSO), Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation has released the estimates of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for the first quarter (April-June) Q1, of 2009-10, both at constant (1999-2000) and current prices, alongwith the corresponding quarterly estimates of expenditure components of the GDP. The details of the estimates are presented below.

I ESTIMATES OF GDP BY ECONOMIC ACTIVITY

(a) At constant (1999-2000) prices

2. Quarterly GDP at factor cost at constant (1999-2000) prices for Q1 of 2009-10 is estimated at Rs 8,30,555 crore, as against Rs. 7,82,619 crore in Q1 of 2008-09, showing a growth rate of 6.1 per cent over the corresponding quarter of previous year.

3. The economic activities which registered significant growth in Q1 of 2009-10 over Q1 of 2008-09 are, ‘mining & quarrying’ at 7.9 per cent, ‘electricity, gas & water supply’ at 6.2 per cent, ‘construction’ at 7.1 percent, ‘trade, hotels, transport and communication’ at 8.1 per cent, ‘financing, insurance, real estate and business services’ at 8.1 per cent, and ‘community, social and personal services’ at 6.8 per cent. The growth rates in ‘agriculture, forestry & fishing’ and ‘manufacturing’ are estimated at 2.4 per cent and 3.4 per cent respectively during this period.

4. According to the information furnished by the Department of Agriculture and Cooperation (DAC), which has been used in compiling the estimate of GDP from agriculture in Q1 of 2009-10, the production of crops rice, wheat, coarse cereals and pulses during the Rabi season of 2008-09 (which ended in June 2009) recorded growth rates of 3.8 per cent, 2.6 per cent, 25.6 per cent, and 18.2 per cent, respectively over the production in the corresponding season of previous agriculture year. Among the commercial crops, the production of oilseeds increased by 13.6 per cent during the Rabi season of 2008-09, while the production of cotton and sugarcane recorded growth rates of (-)10.5 per cent and (-) 22.1 per cent, respectively during the agriculture year 2008-09.

5. According to the latest estimates available on the Index of Industrial Production (IIP), the index of mining, manufacturing and electricity, registered growth rates of 7.3 per cent, 3.2 per cent and 6.0 per cent, respectively during Q1 of 2009-10, as compared to the growth rates of 4.0 per cent, 5.8 per cent and 2.0 per cent in these sectors during Q1 of 2008-09. The key indicators of construction sector, namely, cement and finished steel registered growth rates of 12.0 per cent and 3.4 per cent, respectively during Q1 of 2009-10, as against the growth rates of 5.9 per cent and 6.2 per cent, respectively in Q1 of 2008-09.

6. Among the services sectors, the key indicators of railways, namely, the net tonne kilometers and passenger kilometers have shown growth rates of 5.9 per cent and 9.8 per cent, respectively during Q1 of 2009-10. In the transport and communication sectors, the production of commercial vehicles, cargo handled at major ports, cargo handled by the civil aviation, passengers handled by the civil aviation and the total stock of telephone connections (including WLL and cellular) registered growth rates of (-)19.18 per cent, 1.9 per cent, (-)5.6 per cent, (-) 4.7 per cent and 42.7 per cent, respectively during Q1 of 2009-10 over Q1 of 2008-09. The other key indicators, namely, aggregate bank deposits, and bank credits have shown growth rates of 21.6 per cent, and 15.1 per cent, respectively during Q1 of 2009-10 over Q1 of 2008-09.

(b) At current prices

7. GDP at factor cost at current prices in Q1 of 2009-10, is estimated at Rs. 12,38,692 crore, as against Rs. 11,57,007 crore in Q1, 2008-09, showing an increase of 7.1 per cent.

8. The wholesale price index (WPI), in respect of the groups, food articles, fish, minerals, manufactured products, electricity and all commodities, has risen by 8.5 per cent, (-)2.2 per cent, (-)6.1, 1.4 per cent, (-)2.6 per cent and 0.4 per cent, respectively during Q1 of 2009-10, over Q1 of 2008-09. The consumer price index for industrial workers (CPI-IW) has shown a rise of 8.9 per cent during Q1 of 2009-10 over Q1 of 2008-09.

II ESTIMATES OF EXPENDITURES ON GDP

9. The components of expenditure on gross domestic product, namely, consumption expenditure and capital formation, are normally measured at market prices. The aggregates presented in the following paragraphs, therefore, are in terms of market prices.

10. Private Final Consumption Expenditure (PFCE) at current prices is estimated at Rs. 7,17,280 crore in Q1 of 2009-10 as against Rs. 6,74,393 crore in Q1 of 2008-09. At constant (1999-2000) prices, the PFCE is estimated at Rs. 4,91,154 crore in Q1 of 2009-10 as against Rs. 4,83,281 crore in Q1 of 2008-09. In terms of GDP at market prices, the rates of PFCE at current and constant (1999-2000) prices during Q1 of 2009-10 are estimated at 54.1 per cent and 55.6 per cent, respectively, as against the corresponding rates of 54.6 per cent and 58.0 per cent, respectively in Q1 of 2008-09.

11. Government Final Consumption Expenditure (GFCE) at current prices is estimated at Rs. 1,41,170 crore in Q1 of 2009-10 as against Rs. 1,20,426 crore in Q1 of 2008-09. At constant (1999-2000) prices, the GFCE is estimated at Rs. 87,772 crore in Q1 of 2009-10 as against Rs. 79,619 crore in Q1 of 2008-09. In terms of GDP at market prices, the rates of GFCE at current and constant (1999-2000) prices during Q1 of 2009-10 are estimated at 10.6 per cent and 9.9 per cent, respectively, as against the corresponding rates of 9.7 per cent and 9.6 per cent, respectively in Q1 of 2008-09.

12. Gross Fixed Capital Formation (GFCF) at current prices is estimated at Rs. 4,44,605 crore in Q1 of 2009-10 as against Rs. 4,26,557 crore in Q1 of 2008-09. At constant (1999-2000) prices, the GFCF is estimated at Rs. 2,79,552 crore in Q1 of 2009-10 as against Rs. 2,68,379 crore in Q1 of 2008-09. In terms of GDP at market prices, the rates of GFCF at current and constant (1999-2000) prices during Q1 of 2009-10 are estimated at 33.5 per cent and 31.6 per cent, respectively, as against the corresponding rates of 34.5 per cent and 32.2 per cent, respectively in Q1 of 2008-09.

13. Estimates of GDP at factor cost by kind of economic activity and the Expenditures on GDP for Q1 of 2007-08, 2008-09 and 2009-10 at constant (1999-2000) and current prices, are given in Statements 1 to 4.

14. The next release of quarterly GDP estimate for the quarter July-September, 2009 (Q2 of 2009-10) will be on 30.11.2009.(EOM)