Why John Bolton is dead wrong about the Clinton trip to North Korea

Former UN Ambassador (during Bush-43's administration) John Bolton has become ubiquitous over the last few days once it became apparent that former President Clinton was on his way to Pyongyang to meet with Kim Jong-ilKim Jong-il for the purpose of securing the release of the two imprisoned American journalists who were sentenced by a North Korean court - I've never used the term more loosely - to twelve years of hard labor. He has been making the case on any network that will take him, including NPR, that the spectacle of a former American president going to North Korea provides a valuable propaganda victory for that country. Nothing could be further from the truth.

Countries - particularly authoritarian ones - use propaganda to affect two audiences: the domestic one and the foreign one. With regard to the first audience, Kim Jong-il and his regime have maintained complete and absolute control over its people for decades. There is nothing they can do to increase their control domestically as it is already absolute. The people's attitude and subservience to the Dear Leader will be the same tomorrow as it was yesterday. Perhaps their bellies will not be as full but their relationship to the state and loyalty and submission to the country's sovereign will not change at all. Most of its citizens cannot remember a time before this regime, led by the current leader's father, took power. Their world view has been shaped by the propaganda and education they receive in their country and the fact that Bill Clinton met with the Dear Leader, while reaffirming Kim Jong-il's stature, will not augment it in any fashion.

On the foreign front, I doubt there will be any shift either. All countries of the world, including China, South Korea, Japan, Russia and even Myanmar understand the total control Kim Jong-il wields, and more pertinently, the Orwellian nature of his propaganda. No country in the world will take his word over that of the United States. They understand the fictional quality of Kim Jong-il's rhetoric.

Now there was a time before the end of the Cold War where it could be legitimately asserted that such an event would constitute a propaganda coup. Countries such as East Germany, Cuba and the Soviet Union joined North Korea in sincerely attempting to influence foreign opinion with a view toward convincing those not in their sphere to become part of it. Those days are now long gone and John BoltonJohn Bolton has not adjusted to it.

Yes, there are countries that might seek to leverage the capture of Americans for a high ransom. But those countries would have done so the day before yesterday as they would today. Roxana Saberi, the Iranian-American journalist was released from Iranian custody earlier this year. While the less stable situation in Iran may make the release of the recently-abducted hikers in Iran more complicated, there is no reason to presume that Clinton's trip to Pyongyang itself will force a higher price for their release.

North Korea did not win a propaganda victory yesterday because no one, not even the most horrific regimes (Zimbabwe or Myanmar), believe any of the rhetoric coming from North Korean officials. Propaganda is only effective to the extent it has the capacity to influence public opinion. That day has long since passed with respect to North Korea although John Bolton, who still thinks it is 1983, has not recognized that yet.