North Korea’s 2nd Nuclear Test - The Odds & Stakes of a Nuclear Threat!

The news shook the world and received a lot of condemnation when North Korea officially announced that they have successfully conducted their second underground nuclear test as part of ‘measures aimed at strengthening our self defense nuclear deterrent in every way,’ stated by the state-run North Korean news wire. The statement added, the test will "contribute to safeguarding our sovereignty and socialism and guaranteeing peace and safety on the Korean peninsula and the surrounding region."

The news has also the hit South Korean stock market as well as resulted in mixed outcomes in the Asian markets; some have plunged while others have risen. North Korea also test-fired a short-ranged missile after it conducted the nuclear test on Monday, 25th May, 2009. The 130 km-range missile was fired from its Musudanri missile base in Southern Hamkyung province. Now, that the world is condemning the nuclear test and the U.S is deeply concerned about the nuclear threat and proliferation from North Korea, let’s have a look at what are the odds and stakes of a nuclear threat by North Korea.

North Korea’s nuclear weapon capability is yet on a stage where the world could actually be threatened with its nuclear weapon. Although it is thought that North Korea has produced enough of plutonium for about 6 to 8 weapons and has already produced a rudimentary nuclear device, the weapons experts say that it likely cannot miniaturize a nuclear weapon to mount on a missile. They believe it would need a significant amount of testing to master the technology. Also, its Soviet-era bombers would not be able to evade the advanced air forces of the United States, Japan, and South Korea to deliver the bomb.

Keeping the same context in view, the North’s nuclear arms program is therefore, not a major security threat because they have yet to show that they can build an effective bomb plus they do not have an effective delivery system as well. The major threat, however, is posed by the North’s hundreds of mid-range missiles which can hit South Korea and most of Japan. According to Japan’s Defense estimates, the North could rain 500,000 shells an hour into the Seoul area, which is a home to about half of South Korea’s 49 million person.

If North Korea takes the first strike at South Korea and Japan with its artillery and rockets which may even carry biological weapons, it would cause major economic damage and as well as a in turn result in a heavy blow to global economy. This however, will be a suicidal move by North Korea as the U.S led counter strike would quickly destroy North Korea. Speaking of if there is way to end the North’s nuclear program, there is hardly any hope. The biggest reason being the leader Kim Jong-ilKim Jong-il’s strong belief that only nuclear weapons can give his small state real standing in the world.

As for the issue concerning nuclear proliferation, this threat is real. The former U.S president, George W. BushGeorge W. Bush had suspected that the North aided Syria in developing a nuclear program. Even though experts consider North Korea’s nuclear program out-dated technology, cash strapped North Korea has mastered the nuclear fuel cycle and it is capable of selling its nuclear expertise to state aiming to make plutonium for weapons.