Barack Hussein Obama and Russia

With huge expectations Barack Hussein Obama, the 44th President of USA, is now in the process of formulating his domestic and international policies and many countries in the World are now speculating the degree of their country’s relationship with USA in near future. Although Obama had expressed his views and possible line of action on various domestic issues and international conflicts but he did not much talk about the real intimidating Russian challenge that he is expected to face shortly.

In past few months, many conflicting issues have precipitated on which Russian policies and strategies have astonished Europe and America. Russia has ended military cooperation with NATO following the preliminary deal between USA and Poland to place part of US ballistic missile defense system that has drawn sharp objection from Russia considering it a threat to pressurize Moscow and reminding the World its military doctrine which permits it to use nuclear weapons. After signing the agreement with USA, Poland, likewise in past, may again be a Russian target and in its consequences, NATO is facing a possible Russian expansionism as was demonstrated by the manner in which Moscow handled the recent crisis in Caucasus. Just after Obama’s victory, Russian President Medvedev, with a pugnacious tone, announced the deployment of short range missiles near Poland to counter US military plan in Eastern Europe. He gravely criticized Washington’s role on Georgia issue and the World financial crisis and put all responsibility on America to mend badly damaged ties. Russia is also opponent to the relentless expansion of NATO. Although EU Commission was keen to resume EU-Russia partnership talks with Moscow but Medvedev statement has augmented the tension and his aggressive tone could further harm relations with Europe and America. Mr. Medvedev also sent a cold congratulatory message to Barack ObamaBarack Obama stating the gradual development of cooperation and constructive dialogue with America on the basis of trust and taking into account each other’s interests. Russia also postulates one option to West either to choose relations with Moscow or support President Mikheil SaakashviliMikheil Saakashvili government in Georgia. Russia also turns down categorically USA instance that missile system proposed for Europe is to defend Europe against a possible missile attack from Iran. Another hard challenge for Obama will be to counter the Russian Five Points Foreign Policy that clearly states that Russia does not accept a mono polar World and USA as a super power and being the intimidating rival military power, Russia cannot be isolated and certainly Medvedev will be contriving to be stricter with his American counterpart in Washington.

World scenario has now much changed since 2000 when George. W. Bush took the power. The incident of 9/11, US invasion over Iraq and Afghanistan, Russian onslaught invasion over Georgia and unstable situation on Pak Afghan border and Pakistani tribal areas, aggressive behavior of North Korea, global financial crises and failure of Western sanctions over Iran and many other global issues have changed the World and although USA is considered to be a mono power in World some other forces are making room either militarily or economically setting grave challenges out to United States. How will the new resident of White House deal with these conflicting issues and what new policies would be shaped and what existing policies of Bush will be carried on, only time will reveal. Obama certainly would get not much time to re-formulate his strategy against Moscow but he would not like confrontation as he understands the need to keep Russia engaged with the Western Block and avoid any unnecessary conflicts that may push the World again to cold war like situation as he belongs to the same post Vietnam generation as Russian President Medvedev, who does not believe in cold war mentality. Although Medvedev will be remembering Obama’s remarks about recent Russian Presidential Election that the vote was not fully free and fair, due to the absence of free media and a crackdown on political parties and the opposition but Obama shows his willingness to work with Moscow on strategic issues. Will Obama give up expansion in NATO as Moscow consider it a threat as its relations with Western alliance have plunged to a post-cold war low in the wake of its war with Georgia? Its immediate answer is unavailable. Obama’s election is a clear sign of American people’s wish and desire for fundamental changes in America’s domestic and foreign policies and Obama’s election slogan is “Change”. He wants to change America even the entire World but question is how much room he may have to make a change.

Apart from the conflicts of Ballistic Missiles, Georgia, Poland and Czech issues, there are many other global issues which need a close cooperation between USA and Russia and how will new US President balance the need for Russian support in energy, threat from terrorism, in dealing with Iran and other difficulties in Middle East and Latin America. The politics of oil and gas, US strategic interests in Central Asia and control of gas supply to Europe and other related sensitive issues are lying on the table for Obama in White House.

Despite all analysis and desires from anyone, the relations between USA and Russia will largely depend on the ground realities and intentions which both countries have for each other.