Professor Igor Panarin, 50 years old and a former KGB analyst, is dean of the Russian Foreign Ministry’s academy for future diplomats. For a decade, this Russian academic professor has been predicting that the U.S. will fall apart in 2010. He is not just an ordinary academician in fact he has a great standing in academia and is considered an expert on U.S – Russia relation as well.
Although some time back, only a few took his argument seriously while most of the others just thought he is showing his dislike for United States by predicting such a catastrophic future. But recently, this man is getting a lot of attention for his controversial prediction, and the most eager audience is no one else but the Russian state media. Panarin cheerfully declined any dislike for the U.S. but did warn however, of a bleak future for U.S. in the coming years.
Among the few who are actually taking great interest in Panarin’s forecast for U.S., includes Kremlin, which in the recent years has blamed Washington from all the instability in the Middle East to Global financial crisis. Kremlin is also siding Panarin’s views because his reasoning goes well in harmonization with the Kremlin’s narrative that Russia is returning to its rightful place in the world after the weakness in 1990s, when many feared that the country would go bankrupt economically and politically and break in to separate territories.
Professor Igor believes that there is a 55-45 percent chance that the disintegration will occur by 2010 but according to him, that will be not the best scenario for Russia. If U.S. splits, Russia will become more powerful but its economy would badly suffer because Russian economy presently depends on the dollar, and on trade with the U.S.
Reasons for U.S Split
According to Mr. Panarin, mass immigration, economic decline, and moral degradation will trigger a civil war by next fall. The situation will further aggravate with the collapse of dollar. He based the forecast on classified data supplied to him by FAPSI analyst, he said. Mr. Panarin predicts that the economic, financial and demographic trends will provoke a political and social crisis in the U.S.
He said when the going gets tough, wealthier states will withhold funds from the federal government and effectively secede from the union. The social unrest will lead to a civil war and the U.S. will split along the ethnic lines, and foreign powers will move in.
The Disintegrated U.S. Map
Mr. Panarin attended a conference in Linz, Austria in September 1998. That conference was dedicated to information warfare, the use of data to get an edge over a rival. He said it was there in front of 400 fellow delegates, that he first presented his theory about the collapse of the U.S in 2010.He remarked, “When I first pushed the button on my computer and the map of United States disintegrated, hundreds of people cried out in surprise. They didn’t believe me.” At the end of the presentation, he recalled that most of the audience asked him for the autographed copies of the map showing a dismembered U.S.
According to the map, California will form the nucleus of what he calls, “The Californian republic,” and that he believes will be part of China or under Chinese Influence. Texas will be at the heart of “The Texas Republic.” A cluster of states that will fall under the Mexican Influence and Canada will grab a group of Northern states becoming the “Central North American Republic.” Washington D.C. and New York will be part of an “Atlantic America” that may end up joining European Union. According to Panarin, Hawaii will be a protectorate of Japan or China, and Alaska will be subsumed into Russia. Thus, around the end of June 2010, according to Mr. Panarin’s forecast, the U.S will break into six pieces.
Panarin’s Apocalyptic Vision
Interest in his forecast revived this fall when he published an article in Izvestia, which is one of Russia’s biggest national dailies. In that article, he reiterated his theory by calling U.S foreign debt “a pyramid scheme.” He predicted that China and Russia would usurp Washington’s role as a global financial regulator. He wrote, “Americans hope President-elect Barrack Obama ‘can work miracles,’ but when spring comes, it will be clear that there are no miracles.”
Valdimir Ponzer, a prominent TV journalist in Russia commented on Panarin’s catastrophic forecast, “It reflects a very pronounced degree of Anti-Americanism in Russia today. It’s much stronger than it was in the Soviet Union.” Along with Pozner, many other Russian commentators and experts on the U.S openly dismiss Mr. Panarin’s predictions. Sergei Rogov, director of the government-run Institute for U.S. and Canadian Studies, said, “Crazy ideas are not usually discussed by serious people.”
Professor Panarin is quite convinced about his theory and he believes many are taking his forecast seriously. He believes people like him have forecast similar super powers demise before and they have been right. To reinforce his view, he cited French political scientist, Emmanuel Todd who is famous for having rightly predict the demise of the Soviet Union 15 years beforehand.
Mr. Panarin said, “When he forecast the collapse of the Soviet Union in 1976, people laughed at him." Only time will tell whether Prof. Panarin’s theory of U.S disintegration into 6 pieces by 2010 was as true a depiction of demise of a super power as Emmanuel Todd’s historical forecast of the Soviet Union downfall.