Why is Israel Attacking Now?

The seemingly most obvious reason would be Israel is attacking in response to Hamas ending the cease-fire and the drastic increase of rockets fired into Israel over the Christmas/Chanukah week. This does not wash out as Israel has sat on their hands through similar attacks during the time since Olmert became Prime Minister. Israel has suffered more casualties in a week’s period than they have this past week and done nothing. So, what makes this surge in rocket and mortar fire different causing Israel’s definitive response?

It has been said that the uncertain expectations of the soon to be Obama Presidency and the level of support Israel may expect forced Israel to act while Bush is still in office. Again, the election was a done deal six weeks ago, so again, why now? I will admit that this may have a small influence, but I doubt it was the overriding factor. The ferocity of the Israeli response to the terror attacks seems to point to a different reason.

My opinion is that the coming Israeli elections are the determining factor in the timing and intensity of the campaign against Hamas in Gaza. The Israeli military has been ready and fully trained to complete the job for months but had been held back by the Olmert government. With the inability of Tzipi LivniTzipi Livni to form a coalition government for Kadima after Olmert announced he would step down left the current ruling party in a bad political situation. Olmert, Livni, and the leadership of Kadima have seen the polls that show the Israeli public’s dissatisfaction with the lack of leadership and action against the Hamas rocket attacks. They can read the polls showing their probable loss of being the lead party to Likud and Netanyahu. With the February elections fast approaching, it became necessary for Olmert and Livni to show some backbone and the ability to defend Israel. Now we will see if they can also show stamina to keep with this resolve to put an end to Hamas and the rocket attacks out of Gaza.

For Kadima and the Israeli elections, I think this military response to Hamas will prove to be too little too late and they will fall from power. All this will prove is that these actions to end the rocket barrages should have been taken long ago. It is very likely that the Israeli public will elect Likud to lead the government as most Israelis support a more active and forceful response to Hamas than the Olmert, Livni, Barak government has shown. Whatever the real reason behind this current Israeli action, I have hope for the Israelis living in Sederot and the other southern areas that have suffered under the rocket attacks. It is well past time for the government to protect these citizens against the terror of Hamas. But, even so, I doubt this late action by the Kadima government will sway the election sufficiently to prevent Likud and Netanyahu from taking the lead in the government.

Beyond the Cusp