Thailand Today

by Mary Wilson for Biodun Iginla @ BBC News, from Hamilton, Scotland, UK

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In 2008, Thailand could not avoid the current crisis that’s gripping the city of Bangkok. Prime Minister, Samak SundaravejSamak Sundaravej has stated that he is not going to resign, nor dissolve the elected parliament. He declared a state of emergency on 2nd Sept 2008 ater the pro and anti-government groups fought in the streets of Bangkok which resulted in at least one death and dozens injured.

The conflict centres on the nature of the political system. The PPP support the democratic electoral system, whereas the PAD want it replaced with a system in which some representatives are chosen by certain professionals and social groups. The anti-government protesters are on the whole better educated, more affluent, urban Thai’s who demand that the country move away from a Western-style electoral system, which they say, Thaksin exploited to buy votes.

It is also evident that the conflicts are not only about opposition to former Prime Minister Thaksin ShinawatraThaksin Shinawatra, who was ousted in a coup in September 2006 and later banned from politics and his Thai Rak Thai Party dissolved. Mr Thaksin’s TRT won overwhelming victories in the 2001 & 2005 elections, which fought against old elites and the upper middle class of Thailand, this led to divisions in Thai society. Along with the accusations of corruption and abuse of power, he still remained popular especially in the countryside due to partial free healthcare and his support to village development schemes. Mr Thaksin was accused by Premier Tinulanonda, President of the Privy Council of splitting the nation.

In February of 2006, The PAD was established, which brought together various interest groups who were in total opposition to Mr Thaksin’s Government. Its then five-person central committee consisted of media tycoon Sondhi Limthongkul; Chamlong Srimuang, a former Bangkok governor and retired major-general with strong links to factions in the military; social activist and long-time pro-democracy campaigner Piphob Dhongchai; state enterprise labor leader Somsak Kosaisuk; and Somkiat Pongpaiboon, an academic.

Their rallies in 2006 led to military intervention in politics and the ousting of Mr. Thaksin. With the government and coup makers installed, led by former army chief and privy councilor Surayud Chulanont, they failed to live up to the expectations of many in the anti-Thaksin movement. Thailand was not "purged" of Mr. Thaksin’s influence, although he was in exile in London and China for 17 months. TRT was disbanded, only to be resurrected in the shape of Mr. Samak’s People’s Power Party (PPP), which won the elections in December 2007. In February 2008, Mr. Thaksin returned to Thailand, and the PAD, which ceased its activities after the coup, was re-established in March. Demonstrations began on May 25 at the Democracy Monument in Bangkok to protest a proposal to amend the constitution in a way the PAD thought would benefit Mr. Thaksin, and perhaps pave the way for his return to power.

Mr Thaksin’s chances of leading the Thai nation were again thwarted in July, when he went on trial for corruption and on 31st July his wife was found guilty of tax evasion and served with a 3 yearjail term. The couple were allowed to attend the recent Beijing Olympics, but they did not return to Thailand, instead they flew to London, where they still live with Supreme Court warrants hanging over their heads for failing to appear in court.

The departure of Mr. Thaksin has left a power vacuum, and brought the confrontation beyond the question of the former prime minister’s role in Thai society and politics. As various interest groups scramble for power and influence, the military has apparently become divided into pro- and anti-PAD camps, which has made the situation potentially even more explosive which has resulted in the current crisis.

When taking into account the vents which followed the last coup, another is a very likely scenario. In August, General Anupong stated that the army would not stage a coup and that the situation would be resolved by political mean – but when faced with the situation in Thailand today, Military intervention cannot be ruled out.

It is still possible that Mr. Samak may have to resign and call fresh elections even without a royal intervention. A caretaker government, led by a neutral, senior statesman, could then take over until those are held. But that would only bring the situation back to square one. PPP in one shape or another is very likely to win. This is perhaps the reason why the PAD, despite its name, has publicly declared that it is not in favor of a one-man-one-vote system. The PAD argues that "Western-style democracy" gives too much weight to the rural majority, which it considers unsophisticated and susceptible to vote-buying. Instead, the PAD wants the country to be ruled by an assembly of whom only 30% would be elected and 70% appointed from various professions. Thai politics have entered a dangerous phase where anything could happen. But whatever happens, Thailand is likely to be marred by political instability for the foreseeable future.

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