Barack Obama poised for an historic victory in tomorrow’s presidential election

On the eve of an historic presidential election, the latest Gallup poll shows that Senator Barack ObamaBarack Obama has taken a commanding 11 points lead (53-42) over his Republican rival Senator John McCainJohn McCain. If this lead could be translated across the board into electoral votes, Barack Obama would win comfortably, if not by a landslide.

In purely arithmetical terms, Obama’s victory appears to be a foregone conclusion. According to the latest NYT state by state map, Senator Obama has chalked up 291 votes as opposed to 162 votes by Senator John McCain, with five states comprising 84 votes in the tossup column (Missouri, Indiana, Ohio, North Carolina and Florida).

Compared to 14 days back, Senator Obama’s position has improved substantially. At that time, the five states deemed to be tossups were Nevada, Colorado, Ohio, Florida and North Carolina totaling 76 votes. Since then, Nevada and Colorado are deemed to be leaning towards Obama while Missouri and Indiana have left the leaning towards McCain column to join the ranks of the tossup states. Senator McCain has been trying to compensate for the steady erosion in his position by making a determined effort to win in Pennsylvania, which has been leaning towards Obama for quite some time, and to campaign to the very end in the battleground states, even on Election Day. He figures that many of Hillary ClintonHillary Clinton’s white, blue-collar Democratic supporters have not reconciled to Obama’s candidacy. So if John McCain is able to make big inroads in Pennsylvania, why not in the neighboring states of Ohio and Indiana? McCain also deems Florida to be winnable.

In light of Senator John McCain’s dire situation on the ground, this may appear to be wishful thinking. But Senator John McCain has no other choice. At least in one big state leaning towards his adversary (Pennsylvania) he has to give the impression of being on the offensive, by hammering the issue of taxes, which he claims Obama will raise for the middle class, and the alleged lack of leadership experience. According to an article in the NYT on October 23 Obama made the mistake of declaring that he wanted “to spread the wealth”, which the McCain campaign has seized upon as a sure proof of Obama’s socialistic agenda and his intention of raising taxes for the middle class. Another misstep was Joe BidenJoe Biden’s uncalled for prediction that as President, Obama might be tested pretty soon by America’s adversaries, thus underscoring his lack of foreign policy experience.

In any event, as this columnist has indicated a few days back, Senator McCain's mistakes, especially his selection of Sarah PalinSarah Palin as his running mate, have eclipsed his rival’s by a wide margin and they are at least partly responsible for the widening gap in polls. But the albatross around John McCain’s neck is the financial crisis that erupted on Wall Street just over two months back and has spread across the globe. The Republican administration is being held responsible in large measure for the precarious state of the American economy.

Barack Obama has not hesitated to hammer this issue for all its worth. One of his greatest strengths has been his consistent message that he is on the side of the underprivileged lower income groups in American society. Voters who face the threat of unemployment and have substandard health care are Obama’s natural constituency.

In short, the combined impact of joblessness, mortgage foreclosures, falling stock prices, volatile oil prices, and erosion of pensions has trumped the issue of race almost entirely. Obama enjoys the support of 44% of all white voters, more than even Bill ClintonBill Clinton did. The American people appear inclined to elect someone who they believe can bring the economy back to health.

To revert to the electoral situation, Obama is counting on obtaining at least 291 electoral votes and even if Pennsylvania is deducted from his column (although the CNN polls show that Obama is leading by six points) he will still have the 270 votes necessary to win.

Two weeks back this columnist had suggested a minimum of 306 votes for the Obama –Biden ticket. If the latest CNN polls are accepted as valid, Obama could carry North Carolina (15) and Ohio (20), as he enjoys margins of three percentage points in each of these states. He could also carry Florida (27), where he is leading by four percentage points. These three states would give Obama an additional 62 electoral votes, taking his score from 291 to 353. Indiana (11) and Missouri (11) are dead heat states so the vote could go either way, depending on which candidate is more adept at drawing out his supporters. As the gap in public opinion polls between Obama and McCain has widened to between seven to eleven points, the possibility of a landslide Democratic victory cannot be ruled out on the eve of the presidential election.