Barring a major upset, Barack Obama will defeat John McCain on Tuesday and become America's first black president. That any doubt remains about his victory is, in many ways, astonishing. Consider the hurdles McCain faces.
He has to persuade Americans, overwhelmingly unhappy with George W. Bush's presidency, to put a Republican in the White House again.
With Americans clamoring for change, McCain has to make the case that he — a 72-year-old senator with almost three decades in Congress — is more likely to shake up Washington than is Obama, a 47-year-old political newcomer.
McCain's strength is national security at a time Americans are worried mostly about the economy. He is a champion of free markets at a time Americans are angry about the $700 billion bailout of the financial system.
His rival, meanwhile, is a youthful, sharp-minded, charismatic candidate who has shattered fundraising records, built an awesome political operation and inspired waves of young Americans with his message of hope.
All this suggests an Obama landslide. That is possible. Obama has a clear advantage in the state-by-state competition for electoral votes that will determine the winner.