Punditty Project goes on record with state-by-state predictions: Obama wins

(If you have no interest in Punditty’s prognostications pedigree or the rationale behind his numbers and just want to cut to the chase, scroll down to “How to Read This Projection” for state-by-state and popular vote predictions.)

Long before there was The Punditty Project, there was a political junkie from the Midwest who went by his real name and held reasonably conventional copy editing jobs for various newspapers. During his 15-plus years as a professional editor (1990-2006), this scribe who specialized in writing headlines strayed into the realm of Precision Political Punditry for three presidential elections: 1992, 1996 and 2000. In opinion columns published by actual newsprint-based media, he called the winner correctly every time, even if he did miscalculate a few states here and there.

On Sept. 13, 1992, he wrote that then-Gov. Bill Clinton of Arkansas would defeat incumbent President George H.W. Bush, 302 to 236 in Electoral Votes. The actual total was Clinton 370, Bush 168. Four years later, in an April 9, 1996, column headlined “In Campaign ’96, Slick beats Dull,” he forecast 343 EVs for Clinton and 195 for Dole. The actual total was Clinton 379, Dole 159. In 2000, he predicted in a July 19 column that then-Gov. George W. Bush of Texas would defeat incumbent Vice President Al Gore 318 to 220 in EVs. Bush ended up winning by the narrowest of margins, 271 to 266 (one D.C. voter abstained).

He offered no prediction for the 2004 election because it was just too damned painful to watch, like staring at a two-headed dog chasing its one tail in a roomful of funhouse mirrors. His job at the time required him to be informed about the campaign, but any energy that might have been expended trying to figure out who would prevail in the Bush-Kerry race of 2004 was instead spent rereading George Orwell’s 1984; the book wasn’t as depressing as the presidential campaign.

Meanwhile, back to the present

Times are different now. In spite of the economic meltdown, the ongoing war in Iraq (to date, 12 American troops have died there in October), the ongoing war in Afghanistan (now the second-longest war in American history, trailing only Vietnam), the continued sense that America is beset by all manner of irreconcilable differences between people who will never even meet each other but spend tremendous amounts of time and energy actively seeking out topics of disagreement – in spite of all of this, there is in the American Spirit a tangible sense of hope few could have reasonably expected four years ago.

Some would scoff and call such hope an audacious thing in times like ours, and they would mean it derisively and not at all inspirationally. But it is in times like these that people most need a reason to hope, which is something the hard-hearted wing of the GOP doesn’t seem to get this time around.

At least since the Great Depression, the winning candidate in American presidential campaigns in times of great economic upheaval or widespread social unrest has been the one best able inspire a sense of renewed hope in the electorate: Franklin Roosevelt in 1932 and Ronald Reagan in 1980 are the obvious examples, but in his own twisted, tragic and ultimately self-destructive way, Richard Nixon did the same thing in 1968.

With eight days to go until Election Day, Democratic nominee Sen. Barack Obama of Illinois has vastly exceeded Republican Sen. John McCain of Arizona in the Sense of Hopefulness About the Future Department. In spite of all the bickering back and forth about issues and non-issues alike, this optimism is what will carry him to the presidency. At this point, there is no valid reason to expect McCain to overtake Obama in this important but under-reported subjective area.

There could be an October or early November surprise, of course: Obama could show up for an event reeking of booze, for example, sounding more like 1970s TV drunk Foster Brooks than the eloquent and inspiring orator he has thus far proven himself to be. Or McCain could announce some surprise policy idea – a sweeping student loan forgiveness plan to boost the economy, for example – that upwards of 70 percent of Americans would support but haven’t considered during the entire campaign because the Republicans have been emphasizing such pressing matters as lipstick on pigs and what some “washed-up terrorist” did when Obama was eight. And we can’t overlook the omnipresent issue of unverified electronic voting (see The Brad Blog at http://www.bradblog.com/for excellent coverage of this topic).

Yes, there could be a big surprise on the horizon, but don’t count on it. Eight days is a long time in politics, but not long enough for McCain to overtake Obama. Soon enough, all the speculation will be over. Sometime before midnight Eastern Standard Time on Nov. 4, 2008, the United States will have a president-elect, and his name will be Barack Hussein Obama. After much research and no time at all spent rereading classic dystopian novels of the 20th century, TPP offer this breakdown of how all 50 states and D.C. will vote, with estimated popular vote totals at the end.

How to read this projection:

States are listed alphabetically, with the number of Electoral Votes in parenthesis. The states in bold are states The Punditty Project expects will be called for either Obama or McCain within a half-hour or so after the polls close. States that are not in bold will take longer to determine a winner. When all the votes have been counted, look for Obama to prevail in EVs, 364 to 174. Agree or disagree as you like, but please share this report with all the political junkies you know: TPP thrives on the clicks. Also see Punditty’s Guide to All 50 States and D.C.’s Election returns Web pages at:

http://tinyurl.com/stateresultspages

Alabama ( 9) – McCain

Alaska (3) – McCain

Arizona (10 -- McCain

Arkansas (6) -- McCain

California (55) -- Obama

Colorado (9) – Obama

Connecticut (7) – Obama

Delaware (3) – Obama

District Of Columbia (3) – Obama

Florida (27) -- Obama

Georgia (15) – McCain

Hawaii (4) – Obama

Idaho (4) – McCain

Illinois (21) – Obama

Iowa (7) – Obama

Indiana (11) -- McCain

Kansas (6) – McCain

Kentucky (8) – McCain

Louisiana (9) – McCain

Maine (4) – Obama

Maryland (10) – Obama

Massachusetts (12) – Obama

Michigan (17) – Obama

Minnesota (10) – Obama

Mississippi (6) – McCain

Missouri (11) -- Obama

Montana (3) – McCain

Nebraska (5) – McCain

Nevada (5) – Obama

New Hampshire (4) – Obama

New Jersey (15) – Obama

New Mexico (5) – Obama

New York (31) – Obama

North Carolina (15) – Obama

North Dakota (3) – McCain

Ohio (20) – Obama

Oklahoma (7) – McCain

Oregon (7) – Obama

Pennsylvania (21) – Obama

Rhode Island (4) – Obama

South Carolina (8) – McCain

South Dakota (3) – McCain

Tennessee (11) – McCain

Texas (34) – McCain

Utah (5) – McCain

Vermont (3) – Obama

Virginia (13) – Obama

Washington (11) – Obama

West Virginia (5) – McCain

Wisconsin (10) – Obama

Wyoming (3) – McCain

TPP’s PROJECTED FINAL RESULTS:

Sen. Barack Obama (D-IL) 364

Sen. John McCain (R-AZ) 174

EV variable range:

Obama: 297-405

McCain: 130-241

If McCain has his best possible showing, the Republican could win in Ohio, Florida, Missouri and Colorado. If Obama has his best possible showing, the Democrat could also win Georgia, Indiana, West Virginia, North Dakota, South Dakota, Montana and one EV in Nebraska.

Popular Vote Projection:

Approximately 138 million ballots cast

(122,267,553 votes were cast in the record-setting year of 2004)

Obama: Approximately 72.5 million popular votes, right around 52.5 percent

(winner George W. Bush received 62,040,610 votes in 2004, or 50.74 percent)

McCain: Approximately 61.9 million popular votes, right around 45 percent)

(loser John F. Kerry received 59,028,444 votes in 2004, or 48.27 percent)

Other: Approximately 3.6 million popular votes, slightly more than 2.5 percent.

(Other candidates received 1,175,648 votes in 2004, or .99 percent)

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