Senator Obama likely to get at least 306 electoral votes

Updated

According to “The Electoral Map: Key States”, published in the New York Times of October 16, Senator Barack Obama may expect to receive 277 electoral votes as against 185 votes for Senator John McCain. In other words, not counting the tossup states, Mr Obama had seven more votes than necessary to get elected 44th President of the United States. The Democratic candidate had a solid 196 electoral votes in his column plus 81 leaning towards him while Senator John McCain had 155 sure votes plus 30 leaning towards him.

Five states: Nevada, Colorado, Ohio, Florida and North Carolina were considered tossups, with 76 votes up for grabs.

Assuming that all the states that are leaning towards a candidate vote accordingly, the electoral Arithmetic makes it abundantly clear that Barack Obama is highly likely to exceed the minimum target of 270 electoral votes.

One could go a little further by dividing the tossup states. It appears from the NYT commentary that Republicans do have problems winning in Ohio and Colorado, so one could wager that these two states will go to Obama. That would increase Senator Obama’s tally to 277+20+9 or 306 votes, as against John McCain’s 185+27 (Florida)+15 (North Carolina)+5 (Nevada).

According to this rough tabulation, the final tally could be Obama 306-McCain 232. This is conservative estimate is predicated on a continuation of the situation on October 16. But the situation appears to be changing fast in Senator Obama’s favor. For example, on October 19 he addressed a mammoth gathering at St Louis, Missouri, which the NYT had listed as leaning to Senator McCain. According to the Wall Street Journal, “Obama’s ability to draw his largest audience yet in a typically red state that just weeks ago looked out of reach, could signal a changing electoral map.” The latest polls show Obama leading McCain 52% to 46% in Missouri which could presage the loss of 11 crucial electoral votes for McCain. If that were to happen, the score would be Obama 317- McCain 221.

Similarly North Carolina, which was considered a solid red state “is now a raging battleground”, according to the NYT. The reasons: an influx of new voters; the financial crisis and its adverse impact on the state’s economy; Barack ObamaBarack Obama’s extensive grassroots organization, “the state’s large population of blacks and students; and Mr. McCain’s neglect of the state.”

As the election date draws near, candidates may be torn between a desire to focus on the tossup states or to carry the battle to a state that appears to be in the adversary’s column. Senator McCainSenator McCain appears to be doing the latter by concentrating last minute efforts in Pennsylvania, with 21 electoral votes, which Obama enjoys a double digit advantage, in the hope of appealing to those white Democratic voters who had supported Hillary ClintonHillary Clinton in the primaries.

In another development, Senator Hillary Clinton has been campaigning in Florida to persuade her supporters to lend their full support to the Democratic ticket.

As the two rivals battle it out in the home stretch, and project their rival visions for the next four years, Senator Obama enjoys a decisive financial advantage. He has raised a record $150 million in September which he is using to saturate the TV channels with positive and negative messages. He is likely to raise a lot of money in October as well. His rival, who opted for public financing, is not allowed under the law to spend more than $84 million provided by the federal government from the end of the Republican convention to Election Day. To counter Senator Obama’s lopsided financial advantage Senator John McCain’s campaign has resorted to controversial negative robot calls.

In another development, Senator Barack Obama will suspend his election campaign for more than 36 hours this week to see his grandmother Madelyn Dunham, who is reportedly gravely ill in Hawaii. Although this is a risky move just before the election when every hour of campaigning counts, Senator Obama has no choice, because he has little family left. His parents are dead, along with his maternal grandfather, Stanley Dunham. His ailing grandmother raised him for many years, while his mother was thousands of miles away in Indonesia. Many Democratic bloggers have been expressing their fervent hopes that Senator Obama’s grandmother is there to see her grandson inaugurated President of the United States.

To be sure the race is not over and a lot can still happen to change the equation. One imponderable is the international situation. If a big terrorist attack against the United States is launched or if a major Al Qaeda or Taliban leader is captured or killed, the Republican ticket might be able to benefit.

Another imponderable is the success of each campaign in ensuring a high turnout of their supporters. This could prove decisive in the battleground states. So, all in all the campaign is likely to be fought to the end.