evilOpinion: Obama/Biden Ticket Could Lock Up the Election Tonight.

Just like who will make it to the Super Bowl or World Series, the question of who will win the election on November 4th can be pretty accurately predicted if you study the data correctly. What hampers most prognosticators is that there is so much data to analyze that you can easily overlook a critical point that changes everything, whether it's a professional athlete's win percentage in close games, or a politician's effort in tapping into a certain demographic.

When it comes to predicting the current election (and baseball playoffs as well), no one is doing it any better than Nate Silver, the brain behind FiveThirtyEight.com. Their "motto" is 'Electoral Projections Done Right' and when you look into what they're doing it's certainly true. They analyze almost every piece of data that's come out since the primary season began over a year ago, and using a mathematic formula that is way over my head, are able to average, with trends in mind, how each state is likeliest to swing, and based on those electoral votes, which candidate has the best chance to win come November.

Their current "prediction" as of today October 2nd, is Obama 84.4% chance to win, McCain 14.6%. Mr. Silver and his partners do a much better job explaining why that number is so lopsided right now then I could, but suffice it to say they back it up.

So if Obama is currently in such a good position to win, why is tonight's VP debate so important? It's all about the party bases.

While the pundits continue to flip flop back and forth over who gained more out of the first Presidential debate, one thing is statistically clear, Obama gained ground in an area McCain couldn't touch, the Democratic base's level of enthusiasm about their candidate. Enthusiasm translates to turnout, and turnout of course translates to votes.

According to Diego-Hotline polls conducted from the day of the debate until Sept. 30th, Democratic enthusiasm for their candidate went up 9% in those four days (from 60% to 69%).

So what does that have to do with tonight's VP debate? Is the Democratic base going to get even more enthusiastic? Actually, the trend I can see happening is exactly the opposite.

In those same Diego-Hotline polls, the Republican base was a flatline, keeping around a steady 50% rate of enthusiasm. So basically McCain didn't do a whole lot at the debate to get his "troops" fired up.

That leads us to tonight. Sarah PalinSarah Palin's unfavorable numbers have been steadily increasing over the last two weeks of gaffs and bizarre interview answers. If she under-performs at the debate tonight, or continues her use of convoluted answers, it is very likely to lead to her last supporters, the far right Republican base, looking at her in a more unfavorable light. Since these same voters have not been happy with McCain as a nominee since long before his official nomination, the enthusiasm numbers for the McCain/Palin ticket could start to drop into the 40-30 percentile range.

Combine that with the Obama/Biden ticket's popularity and the trend in their direction with independent voters, and a bad performance by Sarah Palin tonight could spell the end of any sort of realistic chance of winning for the Republican nominees.

Of course, just like with any prediction, crazy things could happen between now and November 4th. That's why Obama will never be given a 100% win chance until those votes are counted on election day. but I don't think I'm going out on a limb when I make this prediction:

Sarah Palin could turn John McCainJohn McCain into Bob DoleBob Dole tonight.