The Friday University of Mississippi debate may well have been won by Senator Barrack Obama, but he eroded the support of one key group -- those hoping for a roll back of perhaps the most unpopular and unsuccessful of Bush's legacies -- an overly aggressive and militaristic foreign policy.
In his reply to a Jim Lehrer's question, Obama said: " If the USA has Osama bin Ladin or one of his top lieutenents in its sights, and Pakistan is unwilling or unable to act, then we should take them out." Now at face value, that statement, which Obama has made earlier as well, seems to make sense; deeper study though reveals a lot of problems:
First of all, US intelligence has been faulty at best. Remember the justification for the Iraq invasion and Colin Powell's presentation of "irrefutable" evidence of nuclear weapons in Iraq?
Second, US drones, missiles, and daisy cutters have been pounding compounds, wedding parties, and villages in Afghanistan and Pakistan since the Clinton years but meanwhile the militants have grown stronger and more daring. Understanding the need for Pakistan to police its own territory, in recent time both the UK Prime Minister and the Secretary General of NATO have distanced themselves from any plan to militarily intrude into Pakistan's autonomous tribal areas.
Third, and most important, it was not what Obama said, but rather what he did not say. He had no thoughts on "winning hearts and minds" or on "nation building" -- the mantras of Democratic Presidents of yore. On the other hand McCain emphasized the need to develop the tribal areas of Pakistan in order to engage the civilian population and wean it away from the militants. Obama provided no opinion on how the new democratic dispensation in Pakistan -- the result of a popular, animated and adequately transparent election -- would have on his policy on Pakistan. A Democrat not caring about promoting democracy overseas? When did that happen?
In fact Obama's views on Afghanistan-Pakistan were more in sync with Donald Rumsfeld's "go it alone" neo-cons then say former President Clinton. Let's hope his supporters -- African Americans, Pakistani Americans, even Romney-Nader-Buchanan "anti-imperialists" -- are not wistfully contemplating the adage "Be careful of what you wish for, it may come true" in a few months.