Byon August 27, 2012
With all the conflicting polls and survey samples using registered — as opposed to likely — voters, I decided to conduct my own poll using the same methodologies I used so successfully for Clinton.
On Thursday, August 23rd, I conducted a national survey of 500 likely voters through live telephone interviews. The poll finds Romney ahead of Obama by 50-43! — far, far different from the published polls.
(The sample was 33% Democrat, 31% Republican, 11% black, and 8% Latino).
Apart from the head-to-head vote question, my survey tracks with the others on most of its internals.
Obama’s personal favorability is 47-50 while Romney’s is 48-48. The president’s job approval is at 46%.
Asked who would do the best job of:
Improving the economy = O-39 / R-49
Creating jobs = O-38 / R-50
Strengthening Medicare = O-44 / R-42
While the Medicare issue is important, it is not the major factor. Asked which is more important, “protecting and strengthening Medicare or improving the economy and creating jobs?” The economy wins by 67-18.
Comparing Medicare plans without explaining them, voters break even with 41% favoring Obama’s and 42% backing Romney’s. Asked which scares them the most, Obama’s scared 46% and Romney’s scared 44%.
But Vice Presidential candidatehas scored a bull’s eye by his comparison of the two Medicare plans and the following answers indicate:
Whose plan do you agree with more? Obama who would save $716 in Medicare spending and use the money to cover the uninsured or Romney who would make the same savings but use the funds to extend the life of the Medicare trust fund?
Obama’s 38% / Romney’s 53%
And the President continues to draw big negatives over his plans to intervene in medical decision making:
President Obama’s health care law sets up a Board to issue guidelines and instructions to doctors and hospitals on what procedures, medications, or treatment to use for each illness. Do you agree or disagree with this aspect of Obama’s legislation?
Agree: 33% / Disagree: 61%
After argumentation, disagreement with Obama’s Medicare cuts becomes even sharper:
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