A Possible Indo-Pakistan Nuclear War
-Col DR. ABDUL RUFF
Nuclear India remains a serious threat to nuclear Pakistan’s existence though New Delhi skillfully tries to create illusions of “existing” Pakistani threats. Pakistan therefore is ever ready to face any aggression from India and China has pledged support Pakistan in the event of any Indian attack.
Notwithstanding all confidence building measures being adopted by Islamabad by handing over an Indian prisoner to New Delhi, Pakistan is seriously worried India will not stick to its no-first-use NFU pledge. They know India might launch a first strike against Pakistan’s counterforce assets in the event of “credible intelligence” of a potential Pakistani nuclear attack. And Islamabad has consistently believed that its declared readiness to escalate a conventional conflict to the nuclear level could effectively deter New Delhi from crossing the border or launching a sub conventional attack.
Pakistan has an operational second-strike capability with its massive inventory of nuclear-capable ballistic missiles and strategic-delivery aircraft; the projection of the naval component only enables survivability for its second-strike option. And since India tested its Agni-V long-range ballistic missile with a range of over 3100 miles in late May, Pakistan has on five occasions test-fired various variants of its Hatf missile system, which some Pakistan analysts said was part of its second-strike-capability buildup.
India declared a no-first-use (NFU) posture, saying it will use nuclear weapons only to retaliate against a nuclear, chemical or biological attack. Islamabad, however, rejects New Delhi’s NFU as mere rhetoric and seeks to deter potential Indian aggression at all three operational levels—subconventional, conventional and nuclear. Nuclear deterrence between India and Pakistan, in place since the 1998 nuclear tests, is an unstable equation: The nuclear tripwires maintained by Pakistan are confusing in their articulations of thresholds for a nuclear first-use policy.
Pakistani president General Zia ul-Haq as early as 1988 said that “if India crosses the border even by an inch, its cities will be annihilated”—a threat his successors have since effectively used in all conflicts between the South Asian nuclear neighbors.
Nuclear goods in India and Pakistan cause real problem for the region and the illegal occupation of Jammu Kashmir by India is the root cause of the troubles. Many hawkish, able bodied Indians argue that India should go for wars, killing everyone who opposes Indian occuaption to retain JK at any cost.
Probably, a nuclear war from either side can put an end to Indo-Pak conflict?
د. عبد راف
Dr. Abdul Ruff, Specialist on State Terrorism; Educationalist;Chancellor-Founder of Centor for International Affairs(CIA); Independent Analyst-columnist;Chronicler of Foreign occupations & Freedom movements(Palestine,Kashmir, Iraq, Afghanistan, Pakistan, Xinjiang, Chechnya, etc); Anti-Muslimism and anti-Islamism are more dangerous than "terrorism" Anti-Islamic forces & terrorists are using criminal elements for terrorizing the world and they in disguise are harming genuine interests of ordinary Muslims. Global media today, even in Muslim nations, are controlled by CIA & other anti-Islamic agencies. Former university Teacher;/website:abdulruff.wordpress.com/ 91-9961868309/91-9961868309