I’ve been asked “who will win the 2012 Republican presidential nomination:, , , or someone else?” and, to be honest, I haven’t a clue as I’m not a Republican.
Still, if I was, I probably couldn’t tell you because it appears the majority of Republicans and their strange bedfellows, the Tea Party people, can’t make up their minds. Can’t really blame them though because, up until now, the GOP/TP campaign for the Republican presidential nomination is more reminiscent of a circus side show than the big tent, and certainly not a political campaign to see who will represent the GOP/TP in claiming the White House and moving in their furniture.
Granted, the field-of-clowns has been winnowed down and the Bachmann’s, Perry’s and Cain’s are now yesterday’s bad jokes. And, again granted, one of the remaining four candidates, Ron Paul, is a non-candidate who didn’t stand a chance from before day one and another, Newt Gingrich, can’t win outside of his home state of Georgia and one of its neighbors, having lost in two other of its neighbors.
Even with recent losses in Mississippi and Alabama, signaling a failed “Southern Strategy”, Gingrich has vowed to stay in the race, an action that at this point will only serve to ensure that the “real” GOP/TP Presidential nominee won’t be known until their convention is held in Tampa in August.
Still, what I believe is known at this time, except of course to Newt and some of his supporters, is that he won’t be the nominee despite his ego. (Though some believe he does know this and is really a Romney shill, staying in the race to draw votes – and delegates – away from Santorum).
Which leads us to the two candidates who currently have the best chance of winning the 2012 Republican nomination: Mitt Romney and Rick Santorum, polar opposites appealing to different segments of the GOP/TP and possessing flaws that have many pundits and pollsters placing each of them behind Obama come election time.
So, let’s see. Romney? Santorum? I don’t know. Because, if there’s no clear nominee come convention-time, anything can happen and we might see a new figure emerge, even one who, up until now, has publicly denied any intent to run for the presidency. Sarah? Doubtful. Jeb? A distinct possibility. Chris? Bob? John? No clue.
Still, I do have more than a clue that the remaining campaign and subsequent convention will be drama at its best, what with all of the characters – and not just the candidates themselves – involved. Boy, there’s no way any Reality TV producer or Hollywood writer could come up with this script! Do I see an Emmy here?