Russian Bear Wakes Up From Hibernation While President Bush Issues Warning

After three days of fighting with Georgia, it has become clear that after hibernating for many years, Russia is back in business as a great power to be reckoned with, respected and feared by its neighbors.

It may be recalled that after the breakup of the Soviet Union, the successor state, the Russian Federation, was beset with intractable political, economic and financial problems which reduced its power to the lowest ebb since the early days of the Bolshevik Revolution. The war in Chechnya sapped its strength and exposed the weakness of its military.

But with the installation of the pro-Russian government in Grozny under Ramzan Kadyrov, the Russian military was able to extract itself and rebuild its strength. With the unprecedented increases in the price of oil during the last couple of years and the heavy dependence of Western Europe on Russian energy, the country is in a strong position to reassert itself as the dominant regional power, especially in relation to most if not all of the former Soviet republics. Recently the Russians even planted their flag on the seabed of the North Pole to stake their claim.

In any event, Mr Mikheil Saakashvili, the president of Georgia, became too impatient to reunite his country by forcibly reincorporating South Ossetia and Abkhazia. He overplayed his hand a few days back when he launched an assault on the South Ossetia capital. This gave golden opportunity to Russia to intervene militarily. In recent years, Russia has been distributing its passports to the residents of South Ossetia and Abkhazia, enabling it to claim that it was Russia's prerogative to protect its nationals from attack.

Besides, Russia was quite annoyed with Georgia's president, who aspired to lead his country to NATO membership. To this end, Georgia had dispatched troops to help the NATO forces in Afghanistan.

The present situation is that Russian troops have entered the Georgia proper from South Ossetia as well and as from Abkhazia.

Georgia has lost all hopes of regaining its former territories. The United States and other Western powers have thus far watched helplessly as Russia proceeds to teach their protege and would-be NATO ally a most painful and possibly crippling lesson in geopolitics. Georgia's leader should have understood that while it was possible for some of the eastern European states to become NATO members, such a luxury could not be availed of by a country located in the Caucasus. The geography was as just not right.

While this was being written, President George Bush appeared in the Rose Garden of the White House, and declared that he was deeply concerned at the situation in Georgia. He said Russia's actions, which appeared to be aimed at overthrowing the democratically elected government of Georgia, were unacceptable in the 21st century. He warned that if Russia did not adhere to its earlier proposal of a ceasefire and a return to the status quo of 6th August, when the conflict started, then its relations with the United States and the European Union would be seriously affected.