Palestinian state, the hopes and risks

It is filed with the Security Council or General Assembly, the application for recognition at the United Nations of a State of Palestine supporters, as well as detractors among Palestinians. Stock of their arguments.The Palestinian Authority will file a request to the UN recognition of a Palestinian state. It is blocking the peace talks, suspended last fall following the refusal of Israel to freeze settlements in the occupied territories, which led the Palestinian Authority to choose the leverage of diplomatic activity. But if the application raises hopes in some, it causes hesitation and doubt in others. Update on some of these arguments.The Israelis that the Palestinians warn against any action "unilateral," the Palestinians have a field day argue that bilateral negotiations failed. Nearly 20 years after the Oslo Accords, and 63 years after the partition plan of the UN that provided a two-state solution, negotiations have stalled and colonization continues inexorably.In July 2010, a report by the Israeli human rights B'Tselem stated that the settlers in the West Bank hold 42% of the country. What must be added the banks of the Jordan and the areas annexed by the separation wall with Israel, while East Jerusalem now has as many Jews as Arabs (see the blog of the essayist Dominique Vidal). At this rate, "there will soon be nothing left to negotiate, says Khalil Tafakji, former cartographer for the Palestinian delegation," questioned by the Nouvel Obs.The approach of the Palestinian Authority, however, was perhaps originally a means to pressure in the hope of a resumption of negotiations, said the researcher Julien Salingue, "except that the negotiations have not resumed ". (Read "What is a Palestinian state without Palestinian sovereignty?").A Palestinian state will give more room to maneuver against the Israeli occupation, argues the president of the Palestinian Authority Mahmoud Abbas. "This will highlight that Palestine is an occupied state, whereas at present, Israel claims that the West Bank and East Jerusalem are merely" disputed territories ".In addition, a Palestinian state "may require treatment now, tied with the State of Israel, nor in the Quartet, but in the UN. The rights of the Palestinian people would thus benefit from a greater legitimacy, including the right of return or compensation, "adds Dominique Vidal.The argument does not convince all observers. A State could make no change in the situation of Palestinians. As proof, the liability of Israel in Syria and Lebanon. Their statehood has not prevented Israel occupying the Golan since 1967, nor to attack and occupy part of Lebanon from 1978 to 2000, argues Mehdi Hasan, editor of the British magazine New Statesman.If the Palestinians renounce their present application for membership of a State of Palestine to the Security Council of the UN in order to avoid a U.S. veto, they can submit a motion to 193 members of the General Assembly, where some 125 countries should support their request. Then they would get a status of non-Member State as is the case for the Vatican. This option will allow Palestinians access to international bodies, including the International Criminal Court. However, this possibility will depend on the wording of the resolution and interpretation that will be made.Strong support from most of the world would be a severe blow to Israel's image. Especially in the context of the recent cold snap of Israel's relations with its two larger neighbors such as Turkey and Egypt. "This is the first time since its creation in 1948 that Israel does not count as an ally among the three major regional powers such as Egypt, Turkey and Iran," warned in Haaretz columnist Bradley Burston U.S. , counting up 10 reasons for the Palestinian process.If the Palestinians seek recognition before the Security Council of the UN, the U.S. veto is assured. Barack Obama had yet begun his term on a promise to revive the peace process and had voted in May in favor of a Palestinian state based on the 1967 lines. But in difficulty to one year in his re-election, Bush can not take because the risk of alienating the pro-Israel lobby in the United States. This is why it is now trying to deter the Palestinians to go after their approach.But such an attitude would be detrimental to the image of the United States in the Arab world, especially in this year of democratic upheavals in the region. "The American influence in the Arab world will decline a little more, the security of Israel will be weakened and it is Iran that will come out stronger," pleads Prince Turki al-Faisal, former Saudi ambassador to the United States.As of April, many Israeli intellectuals have supported the prospect of a Palestinian state. Among them, the former chairman of the Knesset, Avraham Burg. At the European level JCall, a group of European Jewish personalities, working to promote peace is also supporting this initiative, noting that "the status quo is no longer tenable because it is a threat, particularly in the context of the Arab spring".Palestinian officials planned to hold demonstrations in support of the application for UN membership of a State of Palestine. These could escalate, some observers fear. Especially since the settlers are blowing on the embers: some of them have engaged in acts of vandalism in recent days near Nablus in the West Bank. According to Haaretz, the Shin Bet, the Israeli internal security service, believes that the ultra right-wing went "spontaneous anti-Arab acts at a more organized by setting up lists of potential targets" in Palestinian villages.In addition, when the Palestinians will realize that nothing has changed after the recognition of a Palestinian state, the voltage may increase further. But some experts doubt the region: the Palestinian population, scalded, has no illusions about this initiative and "will not agree," Judge Jean-François Legrain, a researcher at CNRS. "The danger is, as in March and May, with local hot fever. Nothing lasting or widespread," said he.State yes, but what state? For the international law professor Guy Goodwin-Gill, the Palestinians would lose much in case of admission on the basis of the request of the Palestinian Authority. Currently, the Liberation Organization (PLO), which in 1988 declared a "state of Palestine" is recognized by 89 states, holds an observer seat at the UN. The PLO represents all Palestinians. But the Palestinian population is estimated at about 11 million people worldwide with approximately 2.3 million West Bank Palestinians, including East Jerusalem and 1.4 million in Gaza. The 4.5 million Palestinian refugees in neighboring countries, the 1.5 million Palestinian Israelis and Palestinians in the diaspora scattered across the world would no longer be represented by this instance, said Guy Goodwin-Gill.Gidi Grintein, one close to Ehud Barak, also welcomes the fact that this option would marginalize the UNRWA, the UN agency for Palestinian refugees: "The establishment of such a state will include over time that Israel will retain control of security issues and reduce the problem of refugees in UNRWA marginalizing and weakening the status of refugees, "he wrote in Haaretz.The U.S. Congress, strongly Republican majority and pro-Israel, threatens, in case of "unilateral action" to cut off aid, estimated at 450 million dollars a year, granted by the United States to the Palestinians. Some European capitals, also hostile to this approach could also consider a review of their relationship with Palestine: Germany, Italy, the Netherlands, Bulgaria and the Czech Republic. But the American threat does not weigh much for the voice of the Authority, Ghassan Khatib, "I do not think Americans will put their threats," he says. Moreover, "this year, the United States has not given a penny," adds a Western diplomat.Tel Aviv threatened to block the fees payable to the Palestinian Authority and taken by Israel. (Under the Oslo accords, Israel to the Palestinian Authority pays the taxes levied on behalf of the latter on goods passing through Israeli ports and airports as the Palestinian territories are not able to perform these operations independently). The transfer of taxes annually provide between 675 million and nearly a billion euros in revenues to the Palestinian Authority, two thirds of its budget. The Jewish state has repeatedly suspended the payment of these taxes.More seriously, claiming that this decision 'unilateral' threatens Israel's existence, the extreme right, particularly the Foreign Minister Avigdor Lieberman threatened Palestinians in retaliation, "the annexation, for example, with some minor adjustments, territories located in Area C [approximately 60% of the occupied West Bank, still under control of the Jewish state], Jean-François Legrain fears.